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شناسایی بخش‌های کلیدی اقتصاد استان گلستان و ارزیابی تأثیر سیل بر تولید و اشتغال: کاربرد رویکرد حذف فرضی تعمیم یافته | ||
| پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی | ||
| مقاله 10، دوره 14، شماره 54، فروردین 1403، صفحه 169-147 اصل مقاله (418.59 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/egdr.2023.68295.6735 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| فرهاد خداداد کاشی* 1؛ ناصر ابراهیمی* 2؛ سیاوش جانی* 3 | ||
| 1استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 3دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| ایران به ویژه استان گلستان همواره در معرض سیل بوده که ضمن ایجاد خسارات زیاد به کشور و استان گلستان، هنوز تدبیر مناسبی برای کاهش هزینه‌های اقتصادی سیل اندیشیده نشده است. هدف این مقاله شناسایی بخش‌های کلیدی اقتصاد استان و ارزیابی خسارت غیرمستقیم سیل از طریق بخش‌های ساختمان و کشاورزی بر سایر بخش‌های استان می‌باشد. برای این منظور از جدول داده – ستانده منطقه‌ای، با دو رویکرد تقاضا محور و عرضه محور جهت محاسبه پیوندهای پسین و پیشین بخش‌های استان استفاده می‌شود. نتایج حاکی از آن است که بخش‌های صنعت، ساختمان و کشاورزی به عنوان بخش‌های کلیدی اقتصاد استان معرفی می‌شوند. طبق هر دو رویکرد تقاضا محور و عرضه محور، دو بخش کشاورزی و صنعت بیشترین خسارت غیرمستقیم را به واسطه خسارت مستقیم بخش کشاورزی متحمل می‌شود. طبق رویکرد تقاضا محور، نتایج حاکی از آن است که بیشترین کاهش ستانده ناشی از خسارت مستقیم بخش ساختمان به ترتیب مربوط به بخش‌های صنعت و عمده فروشی و خرده فروشی است. از طرف دیگر بخش‌های صنعت و کشاورزی بیشترین کاهش در اشتغال را تجربه کرده‌اند. تحلیل اثرات سیل با رویکرد عرضه محور دلالت بر آن دارد که سیل نه تنها به طور مستقیم بر بخش ساختمان اثر می‌گذارد بلکه موجب کاهش ستانده بخش ساختمان، املاک و مستغلات و کاهش اشتغال بخش‌های صنعت، کشاورزی و ساختمان نیز می‌گردد | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| پیوندهای پسین و پیشین؛ جدول داده – ستانده؛ روش حذف فرضی تعمیم یافته؛ سیل | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Identifying the Key Sectors of Golestan Province′s Economy and Evaluating the Impact of Flood on Production and Employment: Application of Expanding Hypothetical Extraction Approach | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Farhad Khodadad Kashi1؛ Nasser Ebrahimi2؛ Siavash Jani3 | ||
| 1Professor Department of Economics, Faculty of Management of Payame Noor Unvierstiy, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Ph. D Student in Economics, Payame Noor Unvierstiy, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 3Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor Unvierstiy, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Iran, especially the province of Golestan, has always been exposed to floods, and in addition to causing great damage to the country and the province of Golestan, no proper plan has yet been thought to reduce economic costs. This article tries to identify the key sectors of the province and evaluate the indirect damage of the flood through the construction and agriculture sectors on other sectors of the province. For this purpose, the regional input – output table with two demand side and supply side approaches is used to calculate the backward and forward linkages of the province´s sectors. The results indicate that the industry, construction and agriculture sectors are introduced as the key sectors of the province’s economy. According to both demand side and supply side approaches, two sectors of agriculture and industry suffer the most indirect damage due to the direct damage of the agriculture sector. According to the demand side approach, the result indicate that the most decrease in output is caused by direct damage to the construction sector, respectively, related to the industry, wholesale and retail sectors. On the other hand, industry and agriculture sectors experienced the most decrease in employment. The analysis of flood effects with a supply side approach indicates that the flood not only directly affects the construction sector, but also causes a decrease in employment in the industry, agriculture and construction sectors. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Backward and Forward Linkages, Expanding Hypothetical Extraction Method, Flood, Input – Output Table | ||
| مراجع | ||
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