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بررسی رفتار رمه‌وار سرمایه‌گذاران شرکت‌های صنعتی در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران (تیر 1397– تیر 1400) | ||
| فصلنامه علمی پژوهش های اقتصاد صنعتی | ||
| دوره 7، شماره 25، آذر 1402، صفحه 97-114 اصل مقاله (1.36 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: کاربردی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/jier.2024.70421.1439 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| مصطفی حیدری هراتمه* | ||
| دانشیار گروه اقتصاد ، واحد نراق، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نراق، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| وجود شرایط نامشخص، سطح اطمینان سرمایه‌گذاران را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد به طوریکه منجر به تغییر رویکرد از منطقی به رفتاری، قضاوت‌هایی مبتنی بر تصورات ذهنی، اطلاعات غیرعلمی، شایعات و شرایط حاکم بر بازار، و در نتیجه موجب پیروی کورکورانه عده‌ایی از فعالان بازار میشود که به آن رفتار رمه‌وار گویند. در مطالعه حاضر، وجود یا عدم وجود رفتار رمه‌وار سرمایه‌گذاران شرکت‌های صنعتی در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران بررسی میشود. این پژوهش با استناد به داده‌های بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی دوره زمانی تیر 1397 تا تیر 1400 و با درنظر گرفتن عوامل مختلفی از جمله سرمایه‌گذاری نهادی، عوامل بنیادی و عوامل با وقفه به عنوان روند گذشته از طریق یک معادله رگرسیونی، وجود یا عدم وجود رفتار رمه‌وار سرمایه‌گذاران را ارزیابی می‌کند. نتایج نشان داد که رفتار رمه‌وار در طول دوره مطالعه وجود دارد. هرچند با افزودن الف) عوامل بنیادی متغیرهایی مانند نسبت P/E، گردش سهم، سرمایه بازار و نقدینگی بازار ب) محاسبه عوامل خارجی مانند بی‌ثباتی سیاسی، بحران مالی جهانی و نوسانات قیمت نفت، و ج) اثرات با وقفه، شدت رفتار رمه‌وار با کمی تغییر ملاحظه میشود. با این حال، یافته کلیدی و نهایی، نشان از وجود رفتار رمه‌وار در دوره زمانی تیر 1397 تا تیر 1400 دارد که دقیقا با آنچه که در طی این دوره در بازار بورس تهران شکل گرفت، هم‌خوانی دارد. به عبارت دیگر، سرمایه گذاران کورکورانه اقدامات گروهی از افراد در بازار را به صورت غیرمنطقی و بدون توجه به اطلاعات شخصی یا رعایت اصول علمی در مورد یک سرمایه گذاری یا تصمیم خاص دنبال میکنند. در واقع احساسات منتقل شده در بین مردم ناشی از رفتار هیجانی مبنی بر ورود به بازار بورسی بر تصمیم آنها تأثیر می‌گذارد یا می‌تواند مشورتی، آگاهانه و کنترل‌شده باشد که در آن هنجارهای اجتماعی بر تصمیمات آنها تأثیر می‌گذارند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| رویکرد رفتاری مالی؛ رفتار رمه‌وار؛ تصمیمات مالی؛ سرمایه‌گذاران؛ بورس اوراق بهادار تهران | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigating the Herding Behavior of Investors of Industrial Companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange (July 2018-July 2021) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mostafa Heidari Haratemeh | ||
| Associate Professor of the Department of Economics, Naragh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Naragh, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| A B S T R A C T The existence of uncertain conditions affects the confidence level of investors, which leads to a change in approach from rational to behavioral, judgments based on subjective perceptions, non-scientific information, rumors, and prevailing market conditions, and it causes blindly following by some market activists, which is called herd behavior. In the present study, the presence or absence of herding behavior of investors of industrial companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange is investigated. This research based on the data of the Tehran Stock Exchange from July 2018 to July 2021 and by considering various factors such as institutional investment, fundamental factors, and factors with lag as past trends through a regression equation, the presence or absence of herding behavior of investors evaluates. The results showed that there was herding behavior during the study period. However, by adding a) fundamental factors of variables such as P/E ratio, share turnover, capital of market, and market liquidity b) calculation of external factors such as political instability, global financial crisis, and oil price fluctuations, and c) Lagged effects, the intensity of herding behavior with a low change is observed. However, the key and final finding indicates the existence of herding behavior from July 2018 to July 2021, which is exactly consistent with what was formed in the Tehran stock market during this period. In other words, investors blindly follow the actions of a group of people in the market irrationally and without paying attention to personal information or following scientific principles about a specific investment or decision. The feelings transmitted among people due to emotional behavior of entering the stock market affect their decision or it can be deliberative, conscious, and controlled in which social norms affect their decisions. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Financial Behavioral Approach, Herding Behavior, Financial Decisions, Investors, Tehran Stock Exchange. | ||
| مراجع | ||
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