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بررسی تأثیر حکمرانی درآمدهای نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای عضو اوپک با تأکید بر توسعه بخش بانکی رویکرد مدل (PVAR GMM) | ||
| پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی | ||
| مقاله 1، دوره 14، شماره 56، مهر 1403، صفحه 31-13 اصل مقاله (713.7 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/egdr.2024.69534.6783 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| محسن جعفری1؛ مرضیه اسفندیاری* 2؛ مصیب پهلوانی3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران. | ||
| 2دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران. | ||
| 3دانشیار. گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| نقش مثبت توسعه بازارهای مالی در کاهش تأثیر نفرین منابع طبیعی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورها، هنگامی مشخص می‌شود که توسعه بخش مالی در یک کشور بتواند درآمدهای حاصل از منابع طبیعی را به پروژه‌های توسعه‌ای و سرمایه‌ای تخصیص داده و در نهایت، منجر به رشد اقتصادی گردد. لذا، در این مطالعه به بررسی تأثیر حکمرانی درآمدهای نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای منتخب عضو اوپک با تأکید بر توسعه بخش بانکی، با استفاده از روش خودگرسیون برداری داده‌های تابلویی پویا (PVAR GMM) پرداخته شد. برای این منظور، داده‌های مورد نیاز از پایگاه داده توسعه مالی جهانی(GFDD)، شاخص‌های توسعه جهانی (WDI)، صندوق بین المللی پول (IMF) و پایگاه داده کشورهای منتخب عضو اوپک (ایران، عراق، عربستان سعودی، کویت، ونزوئلا، نیجریه، الجزایر، امارات و لیبی) طی دوره 2022-2003 استخراج و جهت تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها نیز از نرم‌افزار STATA استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که شاخص‌های حکمرانی درآمدهای نفتی (سهم سرمایه‌گذاری بخش دولتی و خصوصی از درآمدهای نفتی) و شاخص‌های توسعه بخش بانکی از تأثیر مثبتی بر رشد اقتصادی برخوردار می‌باشند. همچنین، درآمدهای نفتی از تأثیر معنادار مثبتی بر رشد اقتصادی برخوردار بوده، لیکن، با افزایش رشد درآمدهای نفتی، رشد اقتصادی کاهش یافته و بیانگر وجود پدیده نفرین منابع طبیعی یا بیماری هلندی در کشورهای مورد بررسی می‌باشد. در نهایت، شاخص‌های توسعه بخش بانکی باعث تقویت تأثیر مثبت شاخص‌های حکمرانی درآمدهای نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی و در نتیجه کاهش اثرات منفی نفرین منابع طبیعی در کشورهای یاد شده می‌شود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| حکمرانی درآمد نفت؛ توسعه بخش بانکی؛ رشد اقتصادی؛ نفرین منابع طبیعی؛ مدل PVAR GMM | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Effect of Oil Revenue Governance on Economic Growth of OPEC Member Countries with Emphasis on Banking Sector Development Using the PVAR GMM Approach | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| mohsen jafari1؛ marziyeh esfandiari2؛ mosayeb pahlavani3 | ||
| 1Ph.D. Student, Economics Department, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Economics Department, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran | ||
| 3Associate Professor, Economics Department, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The positive role of financial market development in reducing the effect of natural resources curse on the economic growth of countries is determined when the development of the financial sector in a country can allocate the income from natural resources to development and capital projects and finally, lead to economic growth. Therefore, in this study, the effect of oil revenue governance on the economic growth of selected OPEC member countries was investigated, with an emphasis on the development of the banking sector, using the PVAR GMM method. For this purpose, the required data was gathered from the Global Financial Development Database (GFDD), World Development Indicators (WDI), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the database of selected OPEC member countries (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria, UAE, and Libya) from 2003 to 2022, and STATA software was used to analyze the data. Results showed that the governance indicators of oil revenues (public and private investment share of oil revenues) and banking sector development indicators have a positive effect on economic growth. Also, oil revenues have had a significant positive effect on economic growth, but with the increase in growth of oil revenues, economic growth has decreased, indicating the existence of a curse of natural resources or Dutch disease in the countries under study. Finally, the indicators of banking sector development strengthen the positive effect of governance indicators of oil revenues on economic growth and thus reduce the negative effects of natural resources curse in mentioned countries. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Oil Revenue Governance, Banking Sector Development, Economic Growth, Natural Resource Curse, PVAR GMM Model | ||
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