پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 45 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 1,219 |
| تعداد مقالات | 10,473 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 20,218,595 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 13,907,563 |
بررسی اثرات نامتقارن رانت نفت‌خام بر رشد زیربخش‌های اقتصادی: چشم‌انداز نفرین نفت‌خام با تأکید بر بیماری هلندی | ||
| پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی | ||
| مقاله 6، دوره 14، شماره 56، مهر 1403، صفحه 129-115 اصل مقاله (324.02 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/egdr.2024.70430.6819 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| عباس معمارزاده* | ||
| استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ولی عصر (عج) رفسنجان، رفسنجان، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در این مطالعه با بررسی واکنش نامتقارن ارزش افزوده کل اقتصاد و زیر بخش‌های اقتصادی به تغییرات مثبت و منفی رانت نفت‌خام، دیدگاه جدیدی در ارتباط با فرضیه پدیده نفرین نفت‌خام در اقتصاد ایران ارائه شد. با استفاده از داده‌های سالانه 1367 تا 1401 و بهره‌گیری از یک مدل خودتوضیح با وقفه‌های توزیعی غیرخطی، نتایج نشان داد که ارزش افزوده کل اقتصاد واکنش نامتقارنی به تغییرات مثبت و منفی رانت نفت‌خام صرفاً در بلندمدت نشان می‌دهد. اگرچه این عدم تقارن در برخی از زیر بخش‌ها نیز تأیید شد، اما ماهیت واکنش زیر بخش‌های اقتصادی به تغییرات رانت نفت به طور قابل توجهی متفاوت است. نتایج مطالعه نشان از تأیید فرضیه نفرین منابع از کانال مکانیسم بیماری هلندی در بخش صنایع و تولید اقتصاد ایران دارد. بنابراین حتی اگر تنوع بخشی در اقتصاد به عنوان یک برنامه سیاستی کلیدی برای کاهش سطح وابستگی به رانت نفت‌خام در اقتصاد ایران باقی بماند، سیاست‌گذاران باید تأثیر زیان‌بار کاهش رانت نفت‌خام را بر رشد برخی از بخش‌های اقتصادی در نظر بگیرند. بنابراین، اثربخشی هر سیاست متنوع‌سازی عمدتاً به این وابسته است که آیا سیاست‌گذاران درک کاملی از واکنش ناهمگون بخش‌های اقتصادی به تکانه‌های رانت نفت‌خام دارند یا خیر. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| نفرین نفت‌خام؛ تکانه نفتی؛ بیماری هلندی؛ غیرخطی؛ عدم تقارن | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigating the Asymmetric Effects of Oil Rent on Sector-Level Economic Growth: the Perspective of the Oil Curse With an Emphasis on the Dutch Disease | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Abbas memarzadeh | ||
| Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Rafsanjan, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In this study, by considering the asymmetric response of the aggregate and sector-level value-added to the positive and negative oil rent shocks, a new insight into the oil curse hypothesis is provided for the case of Iran. Using annual data from 1988 to 2022 and the NARDL model, the findings indicate that the aggregate growth shows an asymmetric reaction to positive and negative oil rent shocks just in the long run. Although this asymmetry is also confirmed for sector-level growth, the instinct of that varies significantly among them. Our analysis supports the oil curse hypothesis in Iran, and this curse channels via the Dutch Disease mechanism in the manufacturing sector. So, even though diversification remains a key policy agenda to decrease the level of oil rent dependence, policymakers should consider the harmful impact of oil rent decrease on the growth of certain economic sectors. Therefore, the effectiveness of any diversification policy mainly depends on whether the policy makers have a full understanding of the heterogeneous response of economic sectors to crude oil rent shocks. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Oil Curse, Oil Shocks, Dutch Disease, Nonlinear, Asymmetric | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Amiri, H., Samadian, F., Yahoo, M., Jamali, S. J. (2019). “Natural Resource Abundance, Institutional Quality and Manufacturing Development: Evidence from Resource-Rich Countries”. Journal of Resource Policy. 62, 550–560.
Auty, R. (1993). “Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies: The Resource Curse Thesis”. Routledge, London.
Badeeb, R. Szulczyk, K. R. & Lean, H. (2021). “Asymmetries in the Effect of Oil Rent Shocks on Economic Growth: A Sectoral Analysis from the Perspective of the Oil Curse”. Journal of Resource Policy, 74, 1-11.
Badeeb, R. & Lean, H. (2017). “Natural Resources and Productivity: Can Banking Development Mitigate the Curse?”. Journal of Economics, 5(2), 1-14.
Badeeb, R. A., Lean, H. H. & Clark, J. (2017). “The Evolution of the Natural Resource Curse Thesis: a Critical Literature Survey”. Journal of Resource Policy, 51, 123–134.
Frankel, J. A. (2010). “The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey”. National Bureau of Economic Research. (0898-2937).
Gylfason, T. (2001). “Natural Resources, Education and Economic Development”. Journal of European Economic Review, 45, 847–859.
Hamilton, J. D. (1983). “Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II”. Journal of Political Economy. 91(2), 228–248.
Hamilton, J. D. (1996). “This is what Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship”. Journal of Monetary Economics. 38(2), 215–220.
Hamilton, J. D. (2003). “What is an Oil Shock?”. Journal of Econometrics. 113(2), 363–398.
Hamilton, J. D. (2011). “Nonlinearities and the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Prices”. Journal of Macroeconomic Dynamics. 15(S3), 364–378.
Herrera, A. M., Karaki, M. B. & Rangaraju, S. K. (2019). “Oil Price Shocks and US Economic Activity”. Journal of Energy Policy. 129, 89–99.
Jibril, H., Chaudhuri, K. & Mohaddes, K. (2020). “Asymmetric Oil Prices and Trade Imbalances: Does the Source of the Oil Shock Matter?”. Journal of Energy Policy. 137, 1-15
Johansen, S. (1991). “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models”. Journal of Econometrica. 59, 1551–1580.
Kallis, G. & Sager, J. (2017). “Oil and the Economy: a Systematic Review of the Literature for Ecological Economists”. Journal of Ecological Economics. 131, 561–571.
Kilian, L. & Vigfusson, R. J. (2011a). “Are the Responses of the US Economy Asymmetric in Energy Price Increases and Decreases?”. Journal of Quantitative Economics. 2(3), 419–453.
Kilian, L. & Vigfusson, R. J. (2011b). “Nonlinearities in the Oil Price–Output Relationship”. Journal of Macroeconomic Dynamics. 15(S3), 337–363.
Kilian, L. & Vigfusson, R. J. (2013). “Do Oil Prices Help Forecast US Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries”. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 31(1), 78–93.
Maheu, J. M., Song, Y. & Yang, Q. (2020). “Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth”. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(2), 570-587.
Majumder, M. K., Raghavan, M. & Vespignani, J. (2020). “Oil Curse, Economic Growth and Trade Openness”. Journal of Energy Economics. 91, 1-10.
Maboudi, R., Nademi, Y. & Dare Nazari, Z. (2022). “Resources Curse and Financialization in Iran's Economy”. Journal of Iranian Energy Economics, 11(2), 127-159. (In Persian).
Mehnatfar, U., Falahati, A. & Soroudeh, N. (2019). “Assessment the Effect of Asymmetrical Shocks of Oil Income on Macroeconomic Variables (Empirical Study between 1970-2018)”. Journal of Economic Strategy. 8(29). 5-35. (In Persian).
Mehrara, M. (2008). “The Asymmetric Relationship Between Oil Revenues and Economic Activities: the Case of Oil-Exporting Countries”. Journal of Energy Policy. 36(3), 1164–1168.
Mehrara, M. (2009). “Reconsidering the Resource Curse in Oil-Exporting Countries”. Journal of Energy Policy. 37(3), 1165–1169.
Mehrara, M., Maki, M. & Tavakolian, H. (2010). “The Relationship Between Oil Revenues and Economic Growth, Using Threshold Methods (the Case of Iran). OPEC Energy Review, 34(1), 1–14.
Mehrara, M., Abrishami, H. & Zamanzadeh Nasrabadi, H. (2011). “An Interpretation of the Resource Curse Hypothesis in Oil Exporting Countries: the Positive Oil Price Shocks From what Threshold Level are Harmful to Economic Growth? ”. Journal of Quarterly Energy Economics Review, 28(8), 119-134. (In Persian).
Memarzdeh, A. & Khiabani, N. (2017). “Investigating Dynamic Effects of Structural Shocks in Global Oil Market on Iran’s Public and Private Sector Expenditure: Structural Dynamic Model Approach”. Journal of Applied Theories of Economics. 4(2), 169-194. (In Persian).
Rafiq, S., Sgro, P. & Apergis, N. (2016). “Asymmetric Oil Shocks and External Balances of Major Oil Exporting and Importing Countries”. Journal of Energy Economics. 56, 42–50.
Rezaei, M., Hasani Moghadam, R., Motaghi, S. & Farhang, A. (2020). “Monetary Policy and Industrial Sector Growth (Review of the Current Situation and Provide a Favorable Model)”. Journal of Economic Strategy. 9(33), 5-36.
Sachs, J. D. & Warner, A. M. (1995). “Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth”. Working Paper 5398. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Sachs, J. D. & Warner, A. M. (1997). “Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth. Center for International Development and Harward Institute for International Development. Harvard University, Cambridge MA.
Sargolzaie, A., Lotfalipour, M. & Salehnia, N. (2022). “Investigating the Impact of Natural Resource Rents and Good Governance on the Welfare of Developing Countries: The Welfare Curse Phenomenon and the Quantile Regression Approach”. Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 9(2), 1-34. (In Persian).
Shiri, A. & Khezri, M. (2021). “Inequality of Income and Curse of Oil Resources in Iran”. Journal of Iranian Economic Issues. 8(1), 191-224. (In Persian).
Singer, H. (1950). “Comments to the Terms of Trade and Economic Development”. Journal of Review Economics and Statistics. 40(1), 84–89.
Shin, Y., Yu, B. & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). “Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework”. Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt. Springer. 281–314. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 324 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 130 |
||