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اثرات اجرای طرح هادی بر کاهش سطح آسیبپذیری روستاییان در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی (زلزله) مورد مطالعه: بخش شاندیز شهرستان بینالود(طرقبه – شاندیز) | ||
| برنامه ریزی توسعه کالبدی | ||
| دوره 12، شماره 1، خرداد 1404، صفحه 87-104 اصل مقاله (1.91 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/psp.2025.72775.2745 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| حمدالله سجاسی قیداری1؛ مجید پریشان* 2؛ حمیدرضا قاسمی3؛ احمد رومیانی4 | ||
| 1دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران | ||
| 2استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه پیامنور، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3کارشناسارشد جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران | ||
| 4دکتری جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| اجرای طرحهای هادی آثار مختلفی در ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیستمحیطی در مناطق روستایی داشته است. هدف از این پژوهش بررسی اثرات اجرای طرح هادی بر کاهش سطح آسیبپذیری روستاییان بخش شاندیز شهرستان بینالود در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی(زلزله) است. روش تحقیق توصیفی - تحلیلی و شیوه و ابزار جمعآوری دادهها در مطالعات نظری (کتابخانهای) و در مطالعه میدانی (پرسشنامه و مشاهد) بوده است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش 5 روستای دارای طرح هادی از بخش شاندیز شهرستان بینالود بوده است. بر اساس فرمول کوکران در خطای 06/0 و باتوجهبه جمعیت روستاهای مورد مطالعه حجم نمونه تحقیق 97 خانوار تعیین شد. برای تجزیهوتحلیل دادهها از آزمونهای (t تک نمونهای و رگرسیون چندمتغیره و تحلیل مسیر) استفاده شده است. یافتههای تحقیق نشان داد آنچنانکه انتظار میرفت اجرای طرح هادی بسترسازی و کاهش آسیبپذیری روستاییان را در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی (زلزله) فراهم نموده؛ اما اثراتی به دنبال داشته است. بهطوریکه آزمون t تک نمونهای نشان داد این میزان برای برخی از تمامی شاخصها پایینتر از شرایط مطلوب (3) ارزیابی شده است و تفاوت معناداری آن نیز برای همه شاخصها کاملاً معنادار است. همچنین بر اساس آزمون رگرسیون، مقدار ضریب تعیین 894 /0 نشاندادهشده است که متغیر مستقل 89 واحد تغییرات مربوط به متغیر وابسته را تبیین میکند. آزمون تحلیل مسیر نشان داد که اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم کلی تأثیرات اجرای طرح هادی در کاهش سطح آسیبپذیری روستاییان در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی (زلزله) در روستاها نمونه مربوط به متغیر بهبود امنیت کالبدی با میزان 424/0 بوده است. سایر متغیرهای یعنی تقویت شبکه معابر با میزان 414/0؛ افزایش سرمایهگذاری با میزان 268/0، مشارکت در مدیریت فضا با میزان 232/0، و رضایتمندی از کالبدی 198/0، افزایش احساس امنیت کالبدی با میزان 195/0 و کاهش مهاجرت با میزان 61/0 رتبههای اول تا 7 را به خود اختصاص دادند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| سطح آسیبپذیری؛ اثرات طرح هادی؛ مخاطرات طبیعی (زلزله)؛ روستاییان؛ بخش شاندیز | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Effects of the Rural Master Plan (Hadi Plan) on Reducing the Vulnerability of Villagers to Natural Hazards (Earthquakes) Case Study: Shandiz District, Binalud Township (Torqabeh–Shandiz) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Hamdollah Sojasi Qeidari1؛ Majid Parishan2؛ Hamid Reza Ghasemi3؛ Ahmad Romiani4 | ||
| 1Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran | ||
| 2Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Payame Noor University, Tehran,Iiran | ||
| 3A.M in Geography and rural planning, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran | ||
| 4Ph.D in Geography and rural planning, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The implementation of rural master plans (Hadi Plans) has generated various economic, social, and environmental impacts in rural areas. This study aims to examine the effects of the Hadi Plan on reducing the vulnerability of villagers in Shandiz District, Binalud Township, to natural hazards, specifically earthquakes. The research employed a descriptive–analytical method, with data collected through library research (theoretical studies) and fieldwork (questionnaires and observations). The statistical population consisted of five villages in Shandiz District that had implemented the Hadi Plan. Based on Cochran’s formula with a margin of error of 0.06, the sample size was determined as 97 households. Data were analyzed using one-sample t-test, multiple regression, and path analysis. The findings revealed that the Hadi Plan has contributed to reducing villagers’ vulnerability to earthquakes; however, the impacts varied across different indicators. The one-sample t-test indicated that for some indicators, the effect was below the desirable level (3), and the differences were statistically significant for all indicators. Regression analysis showed a coefficient of determination of 0.894, indicating that the independent variable explained 89% of the variance in the dependent variable. Path analysis demonstrated that the greatest direct and indirect impact of the Hadi Plan on reducing vulnerability was related to the indicator of “improvement of physical security” (0.424). Other influential factors included “strengthening of road networks” (0.414), “increase in investment” (0.268), “participation in space management” (0.232), “satisfaction with physical development” (0.198), “enhancement of perceived physical security” (0.195), and “reduction of migration” (0.061), ranked from second to seventh, respectively. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Vulnerability, Hadi Plan, Natural Hazards (Earthquake), Villagers, Shandiz District | ||
| مراجع | ||
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