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شاخص ردپای اکولوژیک و ارزیابی پایداری زیستی در توسعه مجموعه شهری تهران-البرز | ||
| برنامه ریزی توسعه کالبدی | ||
| دوره 11، شماره 4، اسفند 1403، صفحه 69-86 اصل مقاله (2.49 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/psp.2025.73644.2761 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| پروانه سبحانی1؛ افشین دانه کار* 2 | ||
| 1استادیار، گروه محیط زیست، دانشگاه لرستان، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، خرم آباد، ایران | ||
| 2استاد، گروه محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، کرج، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| شهرها به‌عنوان پرمصرف‌ترین اکوسیستم‌های جهان مسئول بخش عظیمی از مشکلات محیط‌زیستی هستند. به منظور دستیابی به توسعه پایدار، بررسی شرایط اکولوژیک حاکم بر این مناطق امری ضروری است. براین اساس در مطالعه حاضر، به بررسی روند تغییرات پوشش/کاربری اراضی طی سال‌های 1387-1402 و همچنین پیش‌بینی و مدل‌سازی این تغییرات با استفاده از مدل زنجیره‌ای مارکوف و سلول‌های خودکار (CA-Marcove) در سال 1420 پرداخته شد. در ادامه به محاسبه ردپای اکولوژیک، ظرفیت زیستی و مازاد/کسری اکولوژیک و بررسی میزان عملکرد و توازن اکولوژیک در این منطقه اقدام شد. در نهایت فشار و پایداری اکولوژیک نیز مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. مطابق نتایج طی سال‌های 1387-1402، بیشترین روند تغییرات کاهشی مربوط به مراتع کم تراکم با مساحت 7/1220- کیلومترمربع است، در حالی که بیشترین تغییرات افزایشی به مراتع نیمه متراکم با وسعت 2/1221 کیلومترمربع اختصاص یافته است. در مجموعه شهری تهران-البرز طی سال‌های مورد مطالعه، نزدیک به 2/2905 کیلومترمربع از طبقات پوشش/کاربری اراضی روند کاهشی داشته است، که 41/15 درصد از مساحت کل منطقه را به خود اختصاص داده است. بیشترین روند تغییرات کاهشی در سال 1420 نیز مربوط به مراتع کم متراکم با مساحت 2661 کیلومترمربع می‌باشد، در حالی‌که بیشترین روند افزایشی مربوط به مراتع نیمه متراکم با مساحت 4548 کیلومترمربع است. این روند نشان‌دهنده سرعت توسعه شهرنشینی و تبدیل طبقات پوشش/کاربری اراضی در این مجموعه شهری است. بررسی عملکرد و هم‌ارزی بین طبقات پوشش/کاربری اراضی منطقه نشان داد که عوامل هم‌ارزی نسبتاً ثابت، درحالی‌که عوامل عملکرد به‌طور قابل توجهی در نوسان است. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که ردپای اکولوژیک در مجموعه شهری تهران-البرز (1420-1387) دارای روند افزایشی، ظرفیت زیستی و مازاد اکولوژیک نیز دارای روند کاهشی هستند. شاخص ردپای اکولوژیک و عمق پا نیز از روند افزاینده‌ای برخوردار است، که نشان‌دهنده افزایش فشار اکولوژیک و کاهش پایداری اکولوژیک طی سال‌های مورد مطالعه است. بنابراین تحقق توسعه پایدار و حفاظت از منابع طبیعی و همچنین برقراری تعادل بین مصرف منابع توسط انسان و جذب ضایعات تولید شده به‌وسیله طبیعت، مستلزم عملکرد برنامه‌ریزان و مسئولان در حفظ و حمایت از محیط زیست در این محدوده است، به گونه‌ای که در راستای حفظ منابع با ارزش زیستی آن تلاش نمایند و وضعیت محیط اکولوژیک در این منطقه را ارتقاء بخشند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تغییرات پوشش/کاربری اراضی؛ ردپای اکولوژیک؛ ظرفیت زیستی؛ عملکرد و توازن اکولوژیک؛ مجموعه شهری تهران-البرز | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Ecological Footprint Index and Assessment of Biotic Sustainability in the Development of the Tehran-Alborz Metropolitan Area | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Parvaneh Sobhani1؛ Afshin Danehkar2 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran. | ||
| 2Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Cities, as the most consuming ecosystems globally, are responsible for a significant portion of environmental problems. To achieve sustainable development, it is essential to examine the ecological conditions governing these areas. Accordingly, the present study investigated the trend of land cover/use changes during the years 2008-2023, as well as the prediction and modeling of these changes using the Markov chain model and cellular automata (CA-Markov) for the year 2041. Subsequently, the ecological footprint, biocapacity, and ecological deficit/surplus were calculated, and the performance and ecological balance in this region were examined. Finally, ecological pressure and sustainability were also assessed. According to the results, during the years 2008-2023, the most significant decreasing trend was related to sparse rangelands with an area of -1220.7 square kilometers, while the most significant increasing changes were allocated to semi-dense rangelands with an area of 1221.2 square kilometers. In the Tehran-Alborz metropolitan area during the studied years, nearly 2905.2 square kilometers of land cover/use classes showed a decreasing trend, which constitutes 15.41% of the total area of the region. The most significant decreasing trend in 2041 is also related to sparse rangelands with an area of 2661 square kilometers, while the most significant increasing trend is related to semi-dense rangelands with an area of 4548 square kilometers. This trend indicates the rapid pace of urbanization and the transformation of land cover/use classes in this metropolitan area. The investigation of performance and equivalence between land cover/use classes in the region showed that equivalence factors are relatively stable, while performance factors fluctuate significantly. Furthermore, the results indicated that the ecological footprint in the Tehran-Alborz metropolitan area (2008-2041) has an increasing trend, while biocapacity and ecological surplus have a decreasing trend. The ecological footprint index and ecological depth also show an increasing trend, indicating an increase in ecological pressure and a decrease in ecological sustainability during the studied years. Therefore, the realization of sustainable development and the protection of natural resources, as well as establishing a balance between human consumption of resources and the absorption of produced waste by nature, necessitates the action of planners and authorities in preserving and protecting the environment in this area, in a way that they strive to preserve its valuable biological resources and improve the ecological environment in this region. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Land Cover/Use Change, Ecological Footprint, Biocapacity, Ecological Performance and Balance, Tehran-Alborz Metropolitan Area | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 7 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 5 |
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