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بررسی تأثیر آستانهای امنیت انرژی بر صنعتی شدن در ایران | ||
| فصلنامه علمی پژوهش های اقتصاد صنعتی | ||
| دوره 9، شماره 32، تیر 1404، صفحه 46-62 اصل مقاله (1.15 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: کاربردی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/jier.2026.76102.1520 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| فرشته محمدیان* 1؛ ولا سالم حسن2؛ محمد علی کاظم3 | ||
| 1استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایلام ، ایلام، ایران. | ||
| 2دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران | ||
| 3دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| امنیت انرژی به توانایی یک کشور در تأمین پایدار، مطمئن و مقرونبهصرفه انرژی برای اقتصاد و جامعه بدون مواجهه با اختلالات جدی اطلاق میشود. در این تحقیق، با استفاده از دادههای سالانه ایران در دوره ۱۳۶۳ تا ۱۴۰۱، شاخص امنیت انرژی بر اساس پنج مؤلفه شامل در دسترس بودن، مقبولیت، قابلیت توسعه، امکان تأمین و مقرونبهصرفه بودن با روش Min-Max محاسبه شد و با بهکارگیری روش خودرگرسیون آستانهای، تأثیر امنیت انرژی بر صنعتیشدن مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان میدهد که دو رژیم متمایز امنیت انرژی (پایینتر و بالاتر از آستانه ۵۷/۵۱) برای اقتصاد ایران وجود دارد که اثرگذاری متغیرها بر ارزش افزوده بخش صنعت در هر رژیم از الگوهای متفاوتی پیروی میکند. بهطور خاص، سرمایه ثابت، سرمایهگذاری مستقیم خارجی و تجارت در هر دو رژیم اثر مثبت و معناداری بر ارزش افزوده بخش صنعت دارند. همچنین، امنیت انرژی خود در هر دو رژیم تأثیر معناداری دارد؛ با این تفاوت که پس از عبور از آستانه، اثر آن از حالت محدودکننده به محرک رشد صنعتی تغییر میکند. این نتایج نشان میدهد که ارتقای امنیت انرژی نهتنها بهطور مستقیم ارزش افزوده صنعتی را افزایش میدهد، بلکه از طریق تقویت کارایی سرمایه، سرمایهگذاری خارجی، تجارت و بهرهوری صنعتی نیز در پایداری رشد صنعتی نقشآفرینی میکند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| امنیت انرژی؛ ارزش افزوده بخش صنعت؛ مدل آستانهای TAR؛ ایران | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigation of the Threshold Effect of Energy Security on Industrialization in Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Fereshteh Mohamadian1؛ Walaa Salim hasan2؛ mohammed Alikadhim3 | ||
| 1Asistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of ilam, Ilam, Iran. y | ||
| 2Master's student in Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran. | ||
| 3Master's student in Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Energy security refers to a country's ability to ensure a stable, reliable, and affordable supply of energy for its economy and society without facing major disruptions. This study examines the impact of energy security on industrialization in Iran using annual data from 1984 to 2022. An energy security index, based on five components—availability, acceptability, developability, accessibility, and affordability—was constructed using the Min-Max method. The Threshold Autoregressive model was then applied to investigate the effect of energy security on industrial value added. The results reveal two distinct energy security regimes (below and above the threshold of 51.57) in Iran’s economy, where the influence of variables on industrial value added follows different patterns in each regime. Fixed capital, foreign direct investment, and trade have a positive and significant impact on industrial value added in both regimes. Moreover, energy security itself has a significant effect in both regimes; however, after surpassing the threshold, its effect shifts from being a growth-limiting factor to a growth-promoting one. These findings suggest that enhancing energy security not only increases added industrial value but also contributes to sustainable industrial growth by improving capital efficiency, foreign investment, trade, and industrial productivity. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Energy security, Industrial value added, TAR threshold model, Iran | ||
| مراجع | ||
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