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ارزیابی زیان اقتصادی خاموشی برق: مطالعه موردی برای صنایع کارخانهای استان مازندران | ||
| فصلنامه علمی پژوهش های اقتصاد صنعتی | ||
| دوره 9، شماره 33، مهر 1404 | ||
| نوع مقاله: کاربردی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/jier.2026.75957.1515 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سعید راسخی* 1؛ رویا ساعدی2؛ یاسر جعفری خورشیدی3 | ||
| 1دانشگاه مازندران، گروه اقتصاد انرژی | ||
| 2دانشگاه مازندران | ||
| 3دانشگاه پیام نور | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در راستای چالش ناترازی در عرضه و تقاضای برق کشور، صنایع استان مازندران نیز متحمل خسارات بسیار شدهاند. هدف این پژوهش، کمیسازی و تفکیک خسارات ناشی از ناترازی برق در گروههای صنعتی این استان با تکیه بر دادههای ثانویه و روشهای اقتصاد سنجی میباشد. در این مطالعه با استفاده از دادههای تابلویی برای 18 گروه صنعتی طی دوره 1401-1397 و با بهکارگیری روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته سیستمی ، دو ریکرد محاسبه زیان تولیدی و زیان رفاهی بررسی شده و در کنار آن رویکرد سوم یعنی محاسبه شاخص ارزش بار از دست رفته نیز بررسی شدهاست. نتایج خسارت بسته به ماهیت هر رویکرد محاسبه، دامنه متفاوتی را نشان میدهد. خسارت ناشی از محدودیت 5 درصد برق برای هر گروه صنعتی، از منظر رفاهی بین 1150 تا 2100 ریال برکیلووات ساعت، از منظر زیان تولیدی، در بازه 9600تا 210000 ریال برکیلووات ساعت قرار داشتهاست. این زیان از منظر ارزش بار از دست رفته بین 62500تا 1360000 ریال بر کیلووات ساعت میباشد. همچنین صنایع بزرگ استان مانند صنایع فرآوردههای غذایی و آشامیدنی و صنعت تولید فرآوردههای چوبی با بیشترین زیان مطلق ریالی مواجه میباشند در حالی که صنایع کوچکتر مانند سایر تجهیزات حمل و نقل و تجهیزات برقی، حساسیت و وابستگی بیشتری به برق پایدار نشان میدهند. آسیبپذیری تمامی صنایع در برابر ناترازی برق یکسان نیست و محدودیت عرضه برق هزینههای هنگفتی را بربخش صنعت استان وارد مینماید. یافتهها بر لزوم سرمایهگذاری در پایداری و امنیت شبکه برقرسانی و ضرورت اصلاح سیاستهای سمت تقاضا تأکید دارد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| خاموشی برق؛ ارزش بارازدست رفته؛ صنایع کارخانهای؛ استان مازندران؛ GMM سیستمی دادههای تابلویی پویا | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Economic Loss Assessment of Power Outages: A case Study of Manufacturing Industries in Mazandaran Province | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Saeed Rasekhi1؛ Roya Saedi2؛ Yaser Jafari Khorshidi3 | ||
| 1University of Mazandaran, Department of Energy Economics, | ||
| 2University of Mazandaran | ||
| 3, Payame Noor University | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In line with the national challenge of electricity supply–demand imbalances, the industrial sector of Mazandaran Province has also suffered substantial economic losses. This study aims to quantify and disaggregate the damages arising from electricity imbalances in the province’s industrial groups, relying on secondary data and econometric methods. Using panel data from 18 industrial ISIC groups over the period 2018–2022 and applying the System Generalized Method of Moments, two approaches—losses in industrial output and welfare costs—are examined, complemented by a third approach that estimates the Value of Lost Load (VoLL) index. The results show that the estimated losses vary considerably depending on the nature of the adopted approach. For a 5% electricity supply restriction, the welfare loss ranges from 1150 to 2100 Rials per kWh, while the loss in industrial output lies between 9600 and 210000 Rials per kWh. From the perspective of the Value of Lost Load, the estimated loss is between 62500 and 1360000 Rials per kWh. Large industries such as food and beverage manufacturing and wood product manufacturing face the highest absolute economic losses, whereas smaller industries such as electrical equipment and other transportation equipment exhibit greater sensitivity and dependency on stable electricity supply. The findings underscore that industrial vulnerability to electricity imbalances is not uniform, and supply constraints impose substantial costs on the provincial industrial sector. The study highlights the necessity of investment in the resilience and security of the electricity grid, alongside urgent reforms in demand-side management policies.. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Power Outage, Value of Lost Load, Manufacturing Industries, Mazandaran Province, Dynamic Panel System GMM | ||
| مراجع | ||
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