اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات49
تعداد شماره‌ها1,277
تعداد مقالات11,018
تعداد مشاهده مقاله22,700,868
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله15,332,512
ساکتی مهر, مریم, صفاری, لیلا, فریدفتحی, اکبر, سلیمانی, مجید. (1403). سناریوپردازی آینده ورزش‌های پایه در ایران با رویکرد آینده پژوهی. فصلنامه علمی زیست فناوری گیاهان زراعی, 11(2), 85-104. doi: 10.30473/fmss.2024.12926
مریم ساکتی مهر; لیلا صفاری; اکبر فریدفتحی; مجید سلیمانی. "سناریوپردازی آینده ورزش‌های پایه در ایران با رویکرد آینده پژوهی". فصلنامه علمی زیست فناوری گیاهان زراعی, 11, 2, 1403, 85-104. doi: 10.30473/fmss.2024.12926
ساکتی مهر, مریم, صفاری, لیلا, فریدفتحی, اکبر, سلیمانی, مجید. (1403). 'سناریوپردازی آینده ورزش‌های پایه در ایران با رویکرد آینده پژوهی', فصلنامه علمی زیست فناوری گیاهان زراعی, 11(2), pp. 85-104. doi: 10.30473/fmss.2024.12926
ساکتی مهر, مریم, صفاری, لیلا, فریدفتحی, اکبر, سلیمانی, مجید. سناریوپردازی آینده ورزش‌های پایه در ایران با رویکرد آینده پژوهی. فصلنامه علمی زیست فناوری گیاهان زراعی, 1403; 11(2): 85-104. doi: 10.30473/fmss.2024.12926

سناریوپردازی آینده ورزش‌های پایه در ایران با رویکرد آینده پژوهی

مطالعات مدیریت رفتار سازمانی در ورزش
مقاله 5، دوره 11، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 42، مرداد 1403، صفحه 85-104    اصل مقاله (1.69 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/fmss.2024.12926
نویسندگان
مریم ساکتی مهر1؛ لیلا صفاری* 2؛ اکبر فریدفتحی3؛ مجید سلیمانی4
1دانشجوی دکترای مدیریت ورزشی، واحد همدان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، همدان، ایران.
2گروه مدیریت ورزشی، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران.
3گروه مدیریت ورزشی، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران
4گروه تربیت بدنی، واحد ملایر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ملایر، ایران.
چکیده
ورزش‌های پایه به‌عنوان شالوده اصلی نظام ورزش، نقش کلیدی در توسعه ورزش همگانی و موفقیت ورزش قهرمانی کشورها ایفا می‌کنند. با توجه به پویایی محیط، افزایش عدم قطعیت‌ها و تغییرات ساختاری، آینده‌نگری و بهره‌گیری از رویکردهای نوین برنامه‌ریزی برای توسعه ورزش‌های پایه ضروری به نظر می‌رسد. هدف پژوهش حاضر، سناریوپردازی آینده ورزش‌های پایه ایران با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی در افق ۱۴۱۲ است. این پژوهش از نوع کیفی و اکتشافی بوده و داده‌ها از طریق مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته با خبرگان حوزه ورزش و مدیریت ورزشی گردآوری شد. نمونه‌گیری به‌صورت هدفمند و تا رسیدن به اشباع نظری ادامه یافت. پس از استخراج عوامل مؤثر بر آینده ورزش‌های پایه، از تحلیل اثرات متقابل و نرم‌افزار Scenario Wizard به‌منظور شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی و تعیین میزان تأثیرگذاری و عدم قطعیت آن‌ها استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد عواملی همچون سیاست‌گذاری و حکمرانی ورزش، منابع مالی، توسعه منابع انسانی، زیرساخت‌ها، فرهنگ ورزشی و نظام استعدادیابی بیشترین نقش را در شکل‌دهی آینده ورزش‌های پایه ایران دارند. بر اساس پیشران‌های کلیدی، سناریوهای متفاوتی برای آینده ورزش‌های پایه تدوین شد که بیانگر مسیرهای گوناگون توسعه از وضعیت‌های نامطلوب تا وضعیت مطلوب و پایدار است. یافته‌های این پژوهش می‌تواند به مدیران و سیاست‌گذاران ورزشی در اتخاذ تصمیم‌های راهبردی، کاهش عدم قطعیت‌ها و هدایت نظام ورزش‌های پایه کشور به سمت آینده‌ای مطلوب کمک نماید.
کلیدواژه‌ها
ورزش‌های پایه؛ آینده‌پژوهی؛ سناریوپردازی؛ پیشران‌های کلیدی؛ توسعه ورزش؛ سیاست‌گذاری ورزشی
عنوان مقاله [English]
Future Scenario Planning of Grassroots Sports in Iran Using a Futures Studies Approach
نویسندگان [English]
Maryam Saketimehr1؛ Leila Saffari2؛ AKbar Faridfathi3؛ Majid Soleymani4
1Ph.D. Student Of Sport management, Ha.C., Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran.
2Department of Sport Management, Ka.C, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran.
3Department of Sport Management, Ka.C, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran
4Department of Physical Education, Mal.C., Islamic Azad University, Malayer, Iran.
چکیده [English]
Background and Purpose: Grassroots sports, as the foundational pillar of national sports systems, play a significant role in the development of public sports participation and the success of elite sports. In recent years, increasing environmental complexity, rapid social and technological changes, and growing uncertainty in sports governance have highlighted the importance of adopting futures studies approaches in sports planning and policymaking. The purpose of this study was to develop future scenarios for grassroots sports in Iran using a futures studies approach with a horizon toward 1412. Given the strategic importance of grassroots sports in talent identification, sustainable sports development, public health promotion, and social cohesion, identifying the key drivers shaping their future can provide a scientific basis for long-term decision-making and strategic planning in the Iranian sports system. Previous studies in sports futures have mainly focused on strategic management, sports governance, talent development systems, and sustainable sports policies; however, limited research has specifically addressed the future scenarios of grassroots sports in Iran. Therefore, this study aimed to fill this gap by identifying influential drivers, uncertainties, and plausible future pathways for grassroots sports development.
Methodology: This research was qualitative, applied, and exploratory in nature and was conducted using futures studies methods and scenario planning techniques. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with experts in sports management, policymakers, academics, and professionals involved in grassroots sports development. The sampling method was purposive, and interviews continued until theoretical saturation was achieved. In the first stage, influential factors affecting the future of grassroots sports were extracted through thematic analysis of interviews and literature review. Subsequently, the identified variables were categorized and analyzed using cross-impact analysis. Scenario Wizard software was employed to determine the degree of influence and uncertainty of variables and to identify key driving forces. To ensure the validity and reliability of the findings, several strategies were adopted, including member checking, expert review, triangulation of data sources, and iterative analysis. The research process involved identifying environmental trends, analyzing causal relationships among variables, determining critical uncertainties, and finally constructing coherent future scenarios for grassroots sports in Iran.
Results: The findings revealed that several drivers have a decisive role in shaping the future of grassroots sports in Iran. Among the most influential factors were sports policymaking and governance, financial resources and investment, human resource development, sports infrastructure, sports culture, public participation, educational systems, technological advancement, and talent identification mechanisms. Structural analysis demonstrated that governance quality and sustainable financial support were among the most influential and least controllable variables, indicating their strategic significance in determining future developments. Based on the interaction of key drivers and uncertainties, several plausible future scenarios were developed, ranging from pessimistic and fragmented futures characterized by weak governance, declining participation, and inadequate infrastructure, to optimistic and sustainable futures featuring integrated policymaking, effective talent development systems, increased public engagement, and equitable access to sports opportunities. The findings further suggested that the future of grassroots sports in Iran will largely depend on the ability of policymakers to adapt to emerging social, economic, and technological transformations. In addition, strengthening institutional coordination, investing in sports education, and promoting a participatory sports culture were identified as essential components for achieving sustainable development in grassroots sports.
Discussion: The results of this study indicate that the future of grassroots sports in Iran is highly dynamic and influenced by interconnected political, economic, social, cultural, and technological factors. The analysis of influence-dependence relationships showed that governance structures, funding mechanisms, and talent identification systems act as strategic drivers capable of significantly shaping future outcomes. These findings are consistent with previous studies emphasizing the importance of strategic foresight, adaptive governance, and sustainable resource allocation in sports development. Furthermore, the study highlights that uncertainty regarding economic conditions, policy continuity, and institutional collaboration may create substantial challenges for the long-term development of grassroots sports. Nevertheless, the existence of opportunities such as digital technologies, growing awareness of healthy lifestyles, and increasing societal attention to sports can facilitate positive transformations if managed strategically. Overall, the scenario-based approach adopted in this research provides a comprehensive framework for understanding alternative futures and supports sports managers and policymakers in making informed strategic decisions under uncertain conditions. The study ultimately emphasizes the necessity of integrating futures thinking into national sports planning to ensure resilience, sustainability, and balanced development of grassroots sports in Iran.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Grassroots Sports, Futures Studies, Scenario Planning, Key Drivers, Sports Development, Sports Policymaking
مراجع
  1. Adams, D. (2023). The Future of Sport and Recreation in New Zealand. Journal of Futures Studies, 28(1), 63–79.
  2. Bailey, R., & Collins, D. (2013). The standard model of talent development and its discontents. Kinesiology Review, 2(4), 248–259.
    https://doi.org/10.1123/krj.2.4.248
  3. Bailey, R., Collins, D., Ford, P., MacNamara, Á., Toms, M., & Pearce, G. (2018). Participant development in sport: An academic review. Sports Medicine, 48(3), 523–536. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40279-017-0802-0
  4. Bailey, R., Collins, D., Ford, P., MacNamara, Á., Toms, M., & Pearce, G. (2018). Participant development in sport: An academic review. Sports Medicine, 48(3), 523–536.
    https://doi.org/10.1007/s40279-017-0802-0
  5. Bishop, P., Hines, A., & Collins, T. (2007). The current state of scenario development: An overview of techniques. Foresight, 9(1), 5–25.
  6. Coalter, F. (2015). Sport-for-change: Some thoughts from a sceptic. Social Inclusion, 3(3), 19–23.
  7. Cook, C. J., & Fletcher, D. (2016). Organizational stressors in elite sport: A systematic review. Sport, Exercise, and Performance Psychology, 5(2), 89–103. https://doi.org/10.1037/spy0000053
  8. Cook, C. J., & Fletcher, D. (2016). Organizational stressors in elite sport: A systematic review. Sport, Exercise, and Performance Psychology, 5(2), 89–103.
    https://doi.org/10.1037/spy0000053
  9. Darafarin, M., Azad Fada, S., & Behesh­ti‑Nejad, M. M. (2024). Futures studies of women’s swimming sport development in Iran. In Proceedings of the 1st International & 2nd National Conference on Women’s Sports Sciences: Physical Activity and Healthy Society. Tehran, Iran. https://civilica.com/doc/2305541
  10. De Bosscher, V., Bingham, J., Shibli, S., van Bottenburg, M., & De Knop, P. (2008). The global sporting arms race: An international comparative study on sports policy factors leading to international sporting success. Meyer & Meyer.
  11. De Bosscher, V., Shibli, S., van Bottenburg, M., De Knop, P., & Truyens, J. (2008). Developing a method for comparing the elite sport systems and policies of nations. Sport Management Review, 11(3), 215–239.
  12. (2023). Elite sport as a catalyst for economic growth and societal change. Deloitte Insights.
  13. DiBenedetto, C. A., Thompson, K. R., & Lopez, E. (2020). Technology integration in youth sport training: Implications for long-term athlete development. Journal of Sports Sciences, 38(15), 1756–1764. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2020.1746821
  14. DiBenedetto, C. A., Thompson, K. R., & Lopez, E. (2020). Technology integration in youth sport training: Implications for long-term athlete development. Journal of Sports Sciences, 38(15), 1756–1764.
    https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2020.1746821
  15. Green, M., & Houlihan, B. (2018). Elite sport development: Policy learning and political priorities. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315171755
  16. Green, M., & Houlihan, B. (2018). Elite sport development: Policy learning and political priorities. Routledge.
    https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315171755
  17. Grix, J., & Lee, D. (2013). Soft power, sports mega-events and emerging states: The lure of the politics of attraction. Global Society, 27(4), 521–536.
  18. Haffner, L. (2025). Directions for future IS research on sports digitalisation: A stakeholder perspective. The Journal of Strategic Information Systems, 34(2), 101905.
  19. Hansen, J., & Søndergaard, E. (2022). School–sport partnerships and youth talent development. Sport, Education and Society, 27(8), 927–941. https://doi.org/10.1080/13573322.2021.1902294
  20. Hansen, J., & Søndergaard, E. (2022). School–sport partnerships and youth talent development. Sport, Education and Society, 27(8), 927–941.
    https://doi.org/10.1080/13573322.2021.1902294
  21. Haug, P., & Green, K. (2019). Talent development in youth sport: A holistic perspective.
    Sport, Education and Society, 24(7), 726–740. https://doi.org/10.1080/13573322.2018.1449085
  22. Haug, P., & Green, K. (2019). Talent development in youth sport: A holistic perspective. Sport, Education and Society, 24(7), 726–740.
    https://doi.org/10.1080/13573322.2018.1449085
  23. Høgsted, R., & Larsen, C. H. (2017). Sport facilities and youth participation: The role of infrastructure in sport development. European Sport Management Quarterly, 17(1), 85–102.
    https://doi.org/10.1080/16184742.2016.1243921
  24. Houlihan, B., & Zheng, J. (2013). The Olympics and elite sport policy: Where will it all end? The International Journal of the History of Sport, 30(4), 338–355.
  25. Jackson, S. J., & Dawson, M. C. (2021). The Global Business of Sport in a Brave New World: Conceptualising a Framework for Alternative Futures. Frontiers in Sports and Active Living.
  26. Kirk, D. (2010). Physical education futures. Routledge.
  27. López-Torres, H. D., Macías-Urrego, J. A., & García-Pineda, V. (2024). Challenges and Scenarios for Organizations Offering Tennis Training Programs. Journal of Futures Studies, 28(4), 15–29.
  28. (2020). Sports industry: Emerging trends and future directions. PricewaterhouseCoopers Report.
  29. Ritchie, I., & Adler, K. (2021). Socio-economic factors and youth sport participation: A comparative study. International Review for the Sociology of Sport, 56(4), 543–561. https://doi.org/10.1177/1012690220946643
  30. Ritchie, I., & Adler, K. (2021). Socio-economic factors and youth sport participation: A comparative study. International Review for the Sociology of Sport, 56(4), 543–561.
    https://doi.org/10.1177/1012690220946643
  31. Rowe, D. (2018). Sport, culture and the media: The unruly trinity (3rd ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
  32. Shields, D. L., & Bredemeier, B. J. (2019). Sport, character, and moral development. Human Kinetics.
  33. Sinclair, L., & Roscoe, C. M. P. (2023). The Impact of Swimming on Fundamental Movement Skill Development in Children (3-11 Years): A Systematic Literature Review. Children, 10(8). https://doi.org/10.3390/children10081411
  34. Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10–21.
  35. Weed, M., Coren, E., Fiore, J., Wellard, I., Mansfield, L., Chatziefstathiou, D., & Dowse, S. (2015). The Olympic Games and raising sport participation: A systematic review of evidence and an interrogation of policy for a demonstration effect. European Sport Management Quarterly, 15(2), 195–226.
  36. Weese, W. J., El-Khoury, M., Brown, G., & Weese, W. Z. (2022). The Future Is Now: Preparing Sport Management Graduates in Times of Disruption and Change. Frontiers in Sports and Active Living.
  37. Zhou, Y., Li, M., & Chen, S. (2020). Gender equity in youth sport participation: Policy and practice implications. Journal of Sport Management, 34(5), 403–415.
    https://doi.org/10.1123/jsm.2019-0197
  38. Zhou, Y., Li, M., & Chen, S. (2020). Gender equity in youth sport participation: Policy and practice implications. Journal of Sport Management, 34(5), 403–415.
    https://doi.org/10.1123/jsm.2019-0197
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 35
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 13


سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب