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اثر فراوانی منابع طبیعی بر مصرف انرژی در ایران: تحلیل نامتقارن چندکی | ||
| فصلنامه علمی پژوهش های اقتصاد صنعتی | ||
| دوره 9، شماره 33، پاییز و زمستان، مهر 1404، صفحه 190-214 اصل مقاله (2.44 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: کاربردی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/jier.2026.76999.1529 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| فرشته محمدیان1؛ سحر مظاهری* 2 | ||
| 1استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایلام ، ایلام، ایران | ||
| 2دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، ، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| پیچیدگی ساختار صنعتی در کنار فراوانی منابع طبیعی از طریق تنوع و تمرکز، به عنوان موتور محرک توسعه اقتصادی عمل میکنند و نقشی کلیدی در مصرف انرژی دارند. از این رو، تحقیق حاضر علاوه بر، اثرات نامتقارن فراوانی منابع طبیعی، با استفاده از دادههای دوره 1370 تا 1401 و روش خودرگرسیون با وقفه توزیعی چندکی، به بررسی تأثیر پیچیدگی اقتصادی، رشد اقتصادی، باز بودن تجاری و قیمت نفت بر مصرف انرژی پرداخت. نتایج برآوردهای کوتاهمدت نشان میدهد که فراوانی منابع طبیعی در چندکهای پایین (سوم و چهارم) و بالا (هفتم و نهم) دارای اثر مثبت و معنادار بر مصرف انرژی است، به طوری که شدت این اثر در سطوح بالاتر مصرف انرژی بیشتر است. در بلندمدت، این اثر تنها در چندکهای پایین (اول و سوم) معنادار بوده و بیانگر وابستگی بیشتر واحدهای صنعتی کممصرف به منابع طبیعی است. نرخ رشد اقتصادی در اغلب چندکها دارای اثر مثبت و معنادار بر مصرف انرژی است و باز بودن تجاری نیز عمدتاً موجب افزایش مصرف انرژی میشود. شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی در کوتاهمدت و بلندمدت اثر مثبت و معناداری بر مصرف انرژی دارد که میتواند ناشی از مراحل اولیه توسعه صنعتی باشد. در مقابل، قیمت نفت در هیچیک از افقهای زمانی اثر معناداری را نشان نمیدهد. بر این اساس، توصیه میشود در سیاستگذاری انرژی تمرکز بر مدیریت هدفمند منابع طبیعی در سطوح مختلف مصرف، توسعه فناوریهای کممصرف در صنایع با شدت انرژی بالا، اصلاح قیمت حاملهای انرژی و جهتدهی به تجارت خارجی در راستای انتقال فناوریهای انرژیکارا مدنظر قرار گیرد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| فراوانی منابع طبیعی؛ مصرف انرژی؛ مدل خودرگرسیون با وقفه توزیعی چندکی (QARDL)؛ تحلیل نامتقارن؛ پیچیدگی اقتصادی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Impact of Natural Resource Abundance on Energy Consumption in Iran: An Asymmetric Quantile Analysis | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Fereshteh Mohamadian1؛ sahar mazaheri2 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, ilam University, ilam, Iran. | ||
| 2Master’s Student in Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The complexity of the industrial structure, alongside natural resource abundance, acts as a driving force for economic development through diversification and specialization, playing a key role in energy consumption. This study investigates, in addition to the asymmetric effects of natural resource abundance, the impact of economic complexity, economic growth, trade openness, and oil prices on energy consumption in Iran over the period 1991–2022, using the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) approach. Short-run estimates indicate that natural resource abundance exerts a significant positive effect on energy consumption in the lower (3rd and 4th) and upper (7th and 9th) quantiles, with the effect being stronger at higher energy consumption levels. In the long run, this effect is only significant in the lower quantiles (1st and 3rd), suggesting greater dependence of low-energy-consuming industrial units on natural resources. Economic growth has a positive and significant impact on energy consumption across most quantiles, while trade openness generally increases energy use. The economic complexity index exhibits a significant positive effect on energy consumption in both the short and long run, potentially reflecting the early stages of industrial development. In contrast, oil prices show no significant impact across any time horizon. Based on these findings, energy policy should focus on targeted management of natural resources across consumption levels, the development of energy-efficient technologies in high-intensity industries, reforming the prices of energy carriers, and directing foreign trade toward the transfer of energy-efficient technologies. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Natural Resource Abundance, Energy Consumption, Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) Model, Asymmetric Analysis, Economic Complexity | ||
| مراجع | ||
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