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شناسایی و تحلیل محتمل ترین سناریو توسعه فوتسال ایران (یک مطالعه آینده نگرانه) | ||
فصلنامه علمی پژوهشهای کاربردی در مدیریت ورزشی | ||
مقاله 3، دوره 12، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 48، 1403، صفحه 29-42 اصل مقاله (1.16 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/arsm.2024.66105.3722 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
علی ابوالحسینی* 1؛ حبیب هنری2 | ||
1دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت ورزشی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران. | ||
2استاد، مدیریت ورزشی دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
هدف این پژوهش شناسایی و تحلیل محتملترین سناریو توسعه فوتسال کشور میباشد. پژوهش حاضر با توجه به ماهیت آن مبتنی بر رویکرد آینده پژوهی است که از لحاظ هدف کاربردی، از نظر روش پیمایشی است. جامعه آماری تحقیق شامل کلیه خبرگانی که در زمینه ورزش قهرمانی و حرفهای و رشته فوتسال از دانش و تجربه لازم برخوردار هستند. روش نمونه گیری به صورت گلوله برفی است. 12 مصاحبه با خبرگان انجام گرفت. بنا به ماهیت موضوع از فنون و ابزارهای مختلف همچون مصاحبه، پنل خبرگان و پرسشنامه استفاده شد. در پردازش دادهها نیز از تکنیکهای متعدد از جمله تکنیک دلفی، تحلیل اثرات متقاطع،تحلیل ساختاری ،بالانس اثرات متقابل و از نرمافزار میک مک و سناریو ویزارد استفاده شد.34 عامل تاثیرگذار بر توسعه فوتسال کشور مشخص شدند. با بهرهگیری از روش تحلیل ساختاری(اثرات متقاطع) و استفاده از نرمافزار میک مک جایگاه هر عامل در سیستم به دست آمده مشخص شد و 8 پیشران به عنوان کلیدی ترین آینده سازها در توسعه فوتسال کشور مشخص شدند و با استفاده از آنها محتملترین سبد سناریو توسعه فوتسال کشور بهدست آمد که در این سبد سناریو بهدست آمده هر 8 پیشران در افق زمانی 10 ساله به حالت فاجعه اتفاق خواهند افتاد. نتایج این پژوهش میتواند به عنوان یک راهنما در برآورد و پیشنگری آینده سازمانهای ورزشی ایران که با ورزش فوتسال در ارتباط هستند مؤثر باشد و مسیری را نشان دهد که باعث فاصله گرفتن از شرایط بحرانی و نزدیک شدن به شرایط ایدهال باشد و به توسعه کمی و کیفی رشته کمک زیادی کند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
ورزش قهرمانی؛ ورزش حرفه ای؛ فوتسال؛ سناریوپردازی؛ توسعه | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Identifying and Analysing the Most Likely Scenario for the Development of Futsal in Iran (A Prospective Study) | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Ali Abolhoseini1؛ Habib Honari2 | ||
1PhD in Sport Management, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
2Professor,, Sport Management, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
This research aims to identify and analyze the most likely scenario for the development of futsal in Iran. It is based on the future research approach according to its nature and is applied in terms of purpose and survey in terms of method. The statistical population includes all experts who have the necessary knowledge and experience in the field of championship and professional sports and futsal. The sampling method is snowball. 12 interviews were conducted with experts. According to the nature of the subject, various techniques and tools were used, such as interviews, expert panels, and questionnaires. In data processing, several techniques were used, including Delphi technique, cross effects analysis, structural analysis, balance of mutual effects, and Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software. 34 factors affecting the development of futsal were identified. Using the structural analysis method (cross effects) and Mic Mac software, the position of each factor in the obtained system was determined, and 8 drivers were identified as the most key future makers in the development of futsal in the country, and by using them, the most probable scenario for the development of futsal was obtained. All 8 propellants will happen in a 10-year time horizon in a disaster mode. The results of this research can be effective as a guide in estimating and forecasting the future of Iranian sports organizations that are related to futsal sports and show a path that will lead to distance from critical conditions and approach to ideal conditions and help the quantitative and qualitative development of futsal | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Championship Sports, Professional Sports, Futsal, Scenario Planning, Development | ||
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