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آیندهپژوهی سناریوهای پیشروی ورزش سوارکاری در افق 1410 با رویکرد سناریونویسی | ||
فصلنامه علمی پژوهشهای کاربردی در مدیریت ورزشی | ||
مقاله 3، دوره 13، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 51، دی 1403، صفحه 33-48 اصل مقاله (1.61 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/arsm.2024.71164.3882 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
زینب السادات سیدعبداللهی1؛ علی محمد صفانیا* 2؛ سید صلاح الدین نقشبندی3؛ محسن باقریان فرحآبادی3 | ||
1دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مدیریت ورزشی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. | ||
2استاد، گروه علوم ورزشی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. | ||
3استادیار، گروه علوم ورزشی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
هدف این مطالعه آیندهپژوهی سناریوهای پیشروی ورزش سوارکاری در افق 1410 با رویکرد سناریونویسی بود. این پژوهش از منظر شیوه گردآوری دادهها کیفی- کمی و از منظر استراتژی از نوع آیندهپژوهی است. مشارکتکنندگان این پژوهش را صاحبنظران حوزه ورزش اسب سوارکاری تشکیل میدادند. در بخش کیفی روش نمونهگیری هدفمند بود و براساس اشباع نظری 25 مصاحبه انجام شد. در بخش کمی روش نمونهگیری برحسب معیار بود و براساس معیارهایی که گروه تحقیق انتخاب کرد از بین 25 مشارکتکننده مرحله اول 10 شرکتکننده بهعنوان شورای راهبردی برای ادامه کار انتخاب شدند. ابزار گردآوری دادهها مصاحبه نیمه ساختاریافته و ماتریسهای با ابعاد 38×38 و 9×9 بود که روایی و پایایی آنها تأیید شد. برای تجزیه و تحلیل دادههای کیفی از تحلیل مضمون و دادههای کمی از تحلیل ساختاری و سناریونویسی استفاده شد. یافتهها نشان داد از مجموع 38 نیروی تأثیرگذار داخلی و خارجی بر ورزش سوارکاری 4 عدمقطعیت «گردشگری اسب»، «سوارکاری زنان»، «افزایش واردات و کاهش صادرات اسب» و «فناوریهای نوین» وجود دارد که سازنده 2 سناریو «پرش از انزوا» و «دربند افسار» هستند. آشنایی با روایت هر سناریو و مقایسه مطلوبیت آنها، میتواند مبنایی برای طراحی اقدامات آینده ورزش سوارکاری باشد تا از طریق آن ورزش سوارکاری در ایران بتواند در جهت حفظ توان رقابتی خود انعطافپذیر و پاسخگو باشد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آیندهپژوهی؛ افق 1410؛ سناریونویسی؛ نیروهای تغییر؛ ورزش سوارکاری | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Scenario-based Future Studies of Equestrian Sports in the Horizon of 2031 with Scenario Writing Approach | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Zeinab al sadat Seyedabdollahi1؛ Ali mohammad Safania2؛ Seyed Salaheddin Naghshbandi3؛ Mohsen Bagherian Farahabadi3 | ||
1Ph.D Student, Department of Sports Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
2Professor, Department of Sports Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
3Assistant Professor, Department of Sports Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
The goal of this study was to conduct scenario-based future studies of the advancement of equestrian sports in the horizon of 2031 using a scenario writing approach. This research involved both qualitative and quantitative data collection methods and employed a strategic future study approach. Participants in this research were experts in the field of equestrian sports. In the qualitative section, purposive sampling was utilized, and 25 interviews were conducted based on theoretical saturation. In the quantitative section, sampling was criterion-based, and 10 out of the 25 participants from the first stage were selected as a strategic council for further work based on criteria chosen by the research group. Data collection tools included semi-structured interviews and matrices with dimensions of 38×38 and 9×9, the validity and reliability of which were confirmed. Qualitative data analysis utilized thematic analysis, while structural analysis and scenario writing were employed for quantitative data analysis. The findings indicated the existence of 4 uncertainties, represented by a total of 38 influential internal and external forces on equestrian sports. These uncertainties include "horse tourism," "female equestrianism," "increase in horse imports and decrease in exports," and "emerging technologies," which form the basis of 2 scenarios: "leaping out of isolation" and "the deadlock." Understanding the narratives of each scenario and comparing their desirability can serve as a basis for designing future equestrian sports activities to help maintain Iran's competitive edge in a flexible and responsive manner. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Future Studies, Horizon 2031, Scenario Writing, Forces of Change, Equestrian Sports | ||
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