تعداد نشریات | 41 |
تعداد شمارهها | 1,138 |
تعداد مقالات | 9,757 |
تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 17,847,910 |
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 12,464,496 |
بررسی عوامل تاثیرگذار بر کسری بودجه دولت در ایران با تاکید بر ابزار مالی اسلامی و نرخ ارز (رهیافت ARDL) | ||
حسابداری دولتی | ||
مقاله 11، دوره 10، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 20، مرداد 1403، صفحه 177-190 اصل مقاله (432.48 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/gaa.2024.69496.1688 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
اشکان رحیمزاده* 1؛ علی بیات2 | ||
1هیات علمی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی زنجان | ||
2گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد زنجان. | ||
چکیده | ||
موضوع و هدف پژوهش: تأمین مالی کسری بودجه از طریق استقراض از بانک مرکزی آثار منفی تورمی بههمراه داشته و استفاده اوراق بهادار اسلامی در جهت تقلیل کسری بودجه مطرح میشود. هدف اصلی تحقیق بررسی تأثیر ابزار مالی اسلامی، نرخ ارز، هزینههای جاری دولت و سرمایهگذاری بر کسری بودجه در ایران میباشد. روششناسی پژوهش: این تحقیق از حیث هدف کاربردی و ازنظر گردآوری دادهها توصیفی- علی میباشد. اطلاعات متغیرها از بانک مرکزی طی دوره زمانی 1399-1383 بصورت فصلی بوده و در برآورد موردنظر با نرمافزار EViews 9، رهیافت ARDL استفاده شده است. یافتهها: برآورد بلندمدت نشان میدهد که نرخ ارز تأثیر منفی ناچیز بر کسری بودجه ایجاد نموده است. نسبت فروش اوراق مشارکت به GDP واقعی کسری بودجه را کاهش میدهد و نسبت سرمایهگذاری بهGDP واقعی تأثیر معنیداری بر متغیر وابسته ایجاد ننموده است. همچنین رشد هزینههای جاری دولت، کسری بودجه را افزایش میدهد. نتیجهگیری، اصالت و افزوده آن به دانش: اوراق مالی برای ایجاد تأثیر معنیدار بر کسری بودجه باید افزایش تولید را موجب گردد. این مساله از طریق پیوند هرچه بیشتر بخش مالی و بخش حقیقی اقتصاد صورت میپذیرد. بهبود کسری بودجه از کانال صادرات زمانی رخ میدهد که توان تولیدی و رقابتی اقتصاد در حدی مناسب بوده و اقتصاد مبتنی صرف بر خامفروشی نباشد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
ابزار مالی اسلامی؛ سرمایهگذاری؛ کسری بودجه؛ نرخ ارز؛ هزینههای جاری دولت | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Investigating the influencing factors on the government budget deficit in Iran with an emphasis on Islamic financial instruments and exchange rates (ARDL approach) | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Ashkan Rahimzadeh1؛ ali bayat2 | ||
1Academic staff of Islamic Azad University of Zanjan | ||
2Department of Accounting. Islamic Azad Universuty. Zanjan branch | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
Subject and purpose of the Article: Financing the budget deficit through borrowing from the central bank has negative effects on inflation, and the use of Islamic securities is proposed to reduce the budget deficit. The main purpose of research is to investigate the effect of Islamic financial instruments, exchange rate, current government expenses and investment on the budget deficit in Iran. Research method: This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-causal in terms of data collection. The information of the variables from the central bank during the period of 2004-2020 was seasonal and the ARDL approach was used in the estimation with EViews 9 software. Research Findings: The long-term estimation show that the exchange rate has a slight negative effect on the budget deficit. The ratio of bond sales to real GDP reduces the budget deficit, and the ratio of investment to real GDP has not had a significant effect on the dependent variable. Also, the growth of the government's current expenses increases the budget deficit. Conclusion, originality and its contributions to the knowledge: In order to have a significant effect on the budget deficit, financial bonds should increase production. This issue is done through connecting the financial sector and the real sector of the economy as much as possible. the improvement of the budget deficit from the export channel occurs when the productive and competitive power of the economy is at a suitable level and the economy is not based solely on the sale of raw materials | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Budget Deficit, Exchange Rate, Investment, Islamic Financial Instrument, Government Current Expenses | ||
مراجع | ||
Arjomand, M; Emami, K; and Salimi, F. (2016). Growth and productivity; the role of budget deficit in the MENA selected countries. Procedia Economics and Finance. 36:345-352. Askarzadeh Dare, Gh; Memarpour, Z. & Fallahi, H. (1400). Investigating the relationship between Islamic financial instruments (sukuk) and economic growth. Journal of Islamic Banking and Financial Studies, 16, 1-16. (In Persian). Ball and Mankiw (2015). What Do Budget Deficit Do? National Bureau of Economic Research 5263: 1-36. Benbekhti, S; Boulila, H; Benladghem, F; & Benbouziane, M (2019). The Asymmetric Effect of Sukuk on Government Budget: Dealing with Deficit in Malaysia. Jurnal llmu Ekonom. 8(1), 93-104. Boyd, J. H. and Prescott, E. C. (1986), Financial Intermediary-Coalitions, Journal of Economic Theory, 38(2): 211-232. Dini Turkmani, A. & Jafari Shahrashtani, A. (2017). Iran's economy in 2017, an analytical look at macro and urban levels. Saba Retirement Strategies Institute. Soroush Aftabe Farda. First Edition. (In Persian). Engle, R. F. and C. W. J. Granger (1987), Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing, Econometrica, 55: 251-276. Fallahi, E. & Khalilian, S. (2008). Comparing the importance of petroleum products and electricity with other production factors in Iran's agricultural sector. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, Volume 1, Number 2. (In Persian). Fattahi Chenar, A. S. (1400), the effect of the budget deficit and exchange rate on the stock market index in Iran using ARDL method. Journal of Economics, Financial Management and Accounting Studies, (1)7, 450-437. (In Persian). Qadri, J, Mashidi, M and Izadi, B. (2013). Tax revenues and expenditures in Iran, Economic Research, 15, 73-94. (In Persian). Gilak Hakimabadi, M. T; Zeruki, Sh. & Azouji, H. (2018). Analysis of factors affecting the budget deficit in a selection of developing countries with emphasis on the role of financial illusion. Applied Economics Quarterly, (28)9, 15-27. (In Persian). Harrison, P; Sussman, O. and Zeira, J. (1999), Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence, Washington, DC: Federal Reserve Board (Division of Research and Statistics), mimeo. Kiani, C. & Ranjbari, B. (2010). Investigating the long-term relationship between energy, labor and capital inputs in the agricultural sector. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, No. 35. (In Persian). Lashkari, M. & Behzad Arjmandi, M. (2016). Investigating financing methods in the Islamic system with an emphasis on Sukuk. Journal of Islamic Economics and Banking, (1)1, 56-33. (In Persian). Madah, M & Mehrparvor, M. (2020). Empirical analysis of the factors affecting the budget deficit in Iran using the Fuzzy Dimetal method. Journal of Iranian Economic Issues, 8(1), 301-332. (In Persian). Madah, M and Irandoost, M. (2017) Different patterns of government income and expenditure in selected MENA countries with an emphasis on Iran. A Quarterly Journal of the Macro and Sterategic Policies. 6 (22), 149-163. (In Persian). Mimouni, K; Houcem, S; Temimi, A; & Al-Azzam, M. (2019). The Impact of Sukuk on the performance of conventional and Islamic Banks, pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 54, 42-54. Mirza, A and Sultana, N (2020). Impact of Economic Factors to Determine the Sukuk Market Development: An Emprical Analysis. International journal, 1, 65-83. Moulai, M & Abdian, M. (2017). Investigating the factors affecting Iran's budget deficit in the years 1988-2014. Planning and budgeting. 140, 59-78. Mousaviyan, S. A. & Farahani Fard, S. (2015). Lease bonds (Lease Sukuk), Islamic Economy Quarterly, 24. (In Persian). Muharam, H; Junita Anwar, R & Robiyanto, R (2019). Islamic stock market and sukuk market development, economic growth, and trade openness (the case of Indonesia and Malaysia). Central java, Indonesia, 2019. Naimi, M; Soheili, K. & Sharif Karimi, Naqdi, Y. & Bakhtiari, H. (2014). Investigating the effect of budget deficit on currency fluctuations in Iran's economy. Audit Science, (61)15, 176-153. (In Persian). Nofarsti, M. (2011). The root of unity and collectiveness in econometrics. Publications of Rasa Cultural Services Institute. (In Persian). Qlich, W. (2014). The role of Islamic bonds in financing the government budget deficit. Monetary and Banking Research Institute. (In Persian). Rasouli, B. (2015). Functions of Islamic instruments (Islamic sukuk). HESABRAS Journal, 82, 52-46. (In Persian). Salehabadi, A. (1385). Islamic financial markets. Publications of Imam Sadiq University (AS), first. (In Persian). Sargan, J. D. (1984), Wages and price in the United Kingdom, a study in econometric methodology, originally published in 1964 and reproduced in K. F. Wallis and D. Sepahvand, E; Niromand, R. & Zare Mehrjardi, M. R. (2014). Determining Shabani, A. & Qlich, W. (2018). The capability of Islamic bonds in curbing inflation as a policy tool. Islamic Economy Quarterly, (56)11. (In Persian) Shirin Bakhsh, Sh. & Hassan Khoonsari, Z. (2004). Application of Eviews in econometrics. Publications of the Research Institute of Economic Affairs. (In Persian). Snowdon, B & Vane, Howard R. (2014). New macroeconomics. Translated by Khalili Iraqi, M and Suri, A. SAMT Publications. (In Persian). Stiglitz, J.E; and B. Greenwald (2003), Towards a New Paradigm in Monetary Economics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Taghipour, A; (2018). Nvestigating the relationship between the government budget deficit, money growth and inflation in Iran: using the method Simultaneous equations, planning and budgeting, 6 (5 and 6), 105-132. Talebi, M. & Hosseini al-Asal, M. (1400). Investigating the impact of sukuk on the performance of conventional and Islamic banks admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange. Journal of Contemporary Researches in Management and Accounting Sciences, 8, 61-50. (In Persian) Tashkini, A. (2004). Applied econometrics with microfit. DIBAGARAN Art Cultural Institute. (In Persian). Zarei, J. (2019). Structural reforms of the budget in the service of managing the budget deficit in 1400. TAZEHAYE EGHTESAD Journal, 162, 26-23. (In Persian). | ||
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 150 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 229 |