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اثر عدم قطعیت سیاستهای اقتصادی بر مصرف انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر: رویکرد پانل میانگین گروهی تلفیقی | ||
فصلنامه علمی پژوهش های اقتصاد صنعتی | ||
دوره 6، شماره 20، شهریور 1401، صفحه 41-57 اصل مقاله (738.09 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: کاربردی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/jier.2023.65094.1342 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
زهرا فتوره چی* 1؛ امیرعلی فرهنگ2؛ علی محمدپور3 | ||
1دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی | ||
2استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه پیام نور | ||
3دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه تبریز،تبریز، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
در تحقیقات اخیر، تأثیر عدم قطعیت سیاستهای اقتصادی (EPU) بر جنبههای مختلف اقتصاد کلان مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است، اما در زمینه انرژی، خصوصاً انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر مطالعات محدودی انجام شده است. در این مطالعه اثر EPU بر مصرف انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر (REC) در کشورهای خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا(منا) طی دوره زمانی2020-2002 با استفاده از رویکرد پانل میانگین گروهی تلفیقی (PMG) انجام شده است. متغیر مورد استفاده در EPU با یک شاخص ترکیبی بدست آمده است که نااطمینانی در سیاستهای ارزی، پولی و مالی را با استفاده از الگوهای اقتصادسنجی ARCH و GARCH محاسبه میکند. نتایج تحقیق با استفاده از رویکرد اقتصادسنجی PMG نشان میدهد که EPU دارای تأثیر منفی و معنی دار بر REC است به طوری که در کوتاه مدت موجب کاهش 159/0 درصدی و در بلندمدت باعث کاهش 186/0 درصدی بر REC میگردد. براساس نتایج پژوهش، متغیرهای کنترلی سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی، اعتبارات اعطایی به بخش خصوصی و ارزش بازاری بازار سرمایه در هر دو دوره زمانی، کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت موجب افزایش REC شده است. نتایج حاصل از تجزیه و تحلیل علیت گرنجری نیز نشان میدهد که رابطه علیت یک طرفه از EPU به REC وجود دارد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
EPU؛ شاخص ترکیبی؛ سوخت هیدرو کربن؛ PMG | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on renewable energy consumption: Pooled Mean Group approach | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
zahra Fotourehchi1؛ amirali farhang2؛ Ali mohammadpour3 | ||
1Department of Management and Economics, Faculty of Humanities, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, P.O.Box 56199-11367, Ardabil, Iran | ||
2Assistant Professor of Economics, Payame Noor University | ||
3PhD student, Department of Economics, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
Recent research has examined the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on various aspects of macroeconomics, but limited studies have been conducted in the field of energy, especially renewable energy. In this study, the effect of EPU on renewable energy consumption (REC) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) during the period 2002-2020 has been done using the integrated Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach. The variable used in EPU is obtained with a composite index that uncertainty in monetary, monetary and fiscal policies is calculated using ARCH and GARCH econometric models. The results of the study using the PMG econometric approach show that EPU has a negative and significant effect on REC, so that in the short run it reduces /159% and in the long run it reduces REC by 0.186% . According to the research results, the control variables of foreign direct investment, credits granted to the private sector and the market value of the capital market in both time, short and long term have increased the REC. The results of Granger causality analysis also show that there is a one-way causality relationship from EPU to REC. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
PMG, Hydrocarbon fuel, Combined index, EPU | ||
مراجع | ||
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