تعداد نشریات | 41 |
تعداد شمارهها | 1,121 |
تعداد مقالات | 9,580 |
تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 17,385,940 |
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 12,133,128 |
بررسی اثرات تکانههای مخارج مصرفی و سرمایهای دولت تحت دو قاعده پولی تیلور و نرخ رشد حجم پول (الگوی DSGE) | ||
پژوهشهای رشد و توسعه اقتصادی | ||
مقاله 4، دوره 14، شماره 53، دی 1402، صفحه 94-75 اصل مقاله (792.5 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/egdr.2023.67415.6688 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
سید احمدرضا علوی1؛ مهناز ربیعی* 2؛ فاطمه زندی3؛ عبداله دوانی3 | ||
1دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تهران جنوب، تهران، ایران. | ||
2استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تهران جنوب، تهران، ایران | ||
3استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تهران جنوب، تهران، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
از آنجایی که در کشورهای در حال توسعه و نفتی زیرساختهای رشد و توسعه شکل نگرفته است و همچنین بخش خصوصی نیز به دلایل نهادی، ضعف توانایی مالی و بعضاً فنی، قدرت فعالیت در این حوزه را ندارد، در میان عوامل مؤثر بر شاخصهای کلان اقتصادی در این کشورها، مخارج دولت از اهمیت بیشتری برخوردار است که این امر روند عمومی برنامه ریزی در خصوص تخصیص بودجه مصرفی و سرمایهای به هر یک از فعالیتهای اقتصادی را تحت تأثیر قرار میدهد.هدف این تحقیق بررسی اثرات تکانههای مخارج مصرفی و سرمایهای دولت تحت دو قاعده پولی تیلور و رشد حجم پول است. برای دستیابی به این هدف، یک الگوی تعادل عمومی پویایی تصادفی مبتنی بر دیدگاه کینزین جدید با استفاده از اطلاعات و آمارهای موجود اقتصاد ایران طی بازه زمانی ۱۳99-۱۳70 متناسب با واقعیات اقتصاد ایران طراحی گردیده است. مقایسه نتایج به دست آمده از شبیه سازی در دو مدل مجزا مبین آن است که برای تأثیرگذاری بر متغیرهای بخش واقعی اقتصاد، تفاوت چندانی میان ابزار نرخ بهره و نرخ رشد حجم پول وجود ندارد. در مقابل، برای تأثیرگذاری بر متغیرهای غیرحقیقی در مواجهه با تکانههای مذکور، نرخ رشد حجم پول نسبت به نرخ بهره عملکرد بهتری داشته است | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی؛ مخارج دولت؛ قواعد پولی | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Investigating the Effects of Consumption and Capital Expenditure Impulses of the Government Under Taylor's Rule and Growth Rate of Money (DSGE Model) | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Seyed Ahmad Reza Alavi1؛ Mahnaz Rabiei2؛ fatemeh zandi3؛ Abdollah Davani3 | ||
1Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Economics and Accounting, South Branch of Tehran, Islamic Azad University, Tehran. | ||
22. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Accounting, South Branch of Tehran, Islamic Azad University, Tehran. | ||
3Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Accounting, South Branch of Tehran, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
Since the infrastructure of growth and development has not been formed in the developing and oil-producing countries, and also the private sector does not have the power to operate in this field due to institutional reasons, weak financial and sometimes technical ability, among the factors affecting macroeconomic indicators. In these countries, government spending is more important, which affects the general planning process regarding the allocation of consumption and capital budgets to each of the economic activities. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of consumption and capital spending impulses the government is under Taylor's two rules of money and the growth of the money supply. To achieve this goal, a general equilibrium model of stochastic dynamics based on the new Keynesian view has been designed using the available information and statistics of Iran's economy during the period of 1991-2020 according to the realities of Iran's economy. Comparing the results obtained from the simulation in two separate models shows that there is not much difference between the interest rate tool and the growth rate of money to influence the variables of the real sector of the economy. On the other hand, in order to influence the non-real variables in the face of the mentioned impulses, the growth rate of the money volume has performed better than the interest rate. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
DSGE, Expenditure of Government, Monetary Rules | ||
مراجع | ||
Abdollah Milani, M., Bahrami, J., Tavakolian, H. & Akbarpur, N. (2018). “The Impact of Tax Policy on the Underground Economy: DSGE Model” Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 23(76), 1-51. (In Persian)..
Afshoon, H., Hadian, E., Samadi, A. & Sadraei Javaheri, A. (2020). “Investigate the Effects of Public Expenditure on Macroeconomic Variables under a Balanced Budget Rule in Iran: a DSGE Approach”. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 27(92), 89-132 (In Persian)..
Agbonkhese, A. & Asekome, M. (2014). “Impact of Public Expenditure on The Growth of Nigerian Economy”. European Scientific Journal, 10(28), 219-229.
Ashrafi, Y., Salimifar, M., Adeli, M. & Tavakolian, H. (2018). “Investigating the Effects of Government Expenditures on Welfare in Iran: Application of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models”. Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 26(85), 33-82. (In Persian)..
Azimi hosseini, A., Akbari Moghaddam, B. & Asadi, M. (2021). “The Effect of Economic Fluctuations and Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Business Cycles (The Case of Oil Economies and BVAR Approach)”. Economic Growth and Development Research, 11(43), 51-64. (In Persian).
Babecký, J., Franta, M. & Ryšánek, J. (2016). “Effects of Fiscal Policy in the DSGE-VAR Framework: The Case of the Czech Republic”. (CNB Working paper series).1-40.
Barro, R. J. (1990). “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth”. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), S103-S125.
Bayat, N. & Bahrami, J. (2017). “Evaluating Taylor Rule and Money Growth Rate Rule in a DSGE Model for Iran”. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 21(83), 67-102. (In Persian).
Bayat, N., Bahrami, J. & Mohammadi, T. (2017). “Inflation Targeting and Nominal GDP Targeting in Monetary Rules for Iran Economy”. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 4(1), 29-58. (In Persian).
Bianchi, F. & Melosi, L. (2019). “The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 104, 1-22.
Boroumand, S., Mohamadi, T., Memar Nejad, A. & Baghfalaki A. (2019). “The Cost of Welfare of Foreign Shocks and The Optimal Rule of Monetary Policy For The Iranian Economy”. Financial Economics, 13(48), 75-110. (In Persian).
Bosnjak, N. (2016). “The Public Expenditures and Economic Growth: DSGE Model for Bosnia and Herzegovina”. European Journal of Economics and Business Studies, 2(3), 68-79.
Choi, W. G. & Devereux, M. B. (2006). “Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending: Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?”. IMF Staff Papers, 53(1), 147-182.
Chugunov, I. & Pasichnyi, M. (2018). “Fiscal Stimuli and Consolidation in Emerging Market Economies”. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 15(4), 113-122.
Chugunov, I., Pasichnyi, M., Koroviy, V., Kaneva, T. & Nikitishin, A. (2021). “Fiscal and Monetary Policy of Economic Development”. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 10(1), 42-52.
Dudzevičiūtė, G., Šimelytė, A. & Liučvaitienė, A. (2018). “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in the European Union Countries”. International Journal of Social Economics. 45(2), 372-386.
Eskandari, M., Pedram, M. & Boostani, R. (2018). “Evaluating the Financial Frictions Effects on Macroeconomic Variables of Iran: A DSGE Approach”. Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 5(1 ), 25-52. (In Persian).
Fotros, M. & Maaboudi, R. (2016). “Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Shocks on Iranian Economic Growth and Income Distribution–A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium”. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 5(19 ), 59-82. (In Persian).
Gali, J. & Monacelli, T. (2008). “Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union”. Journal of International Economics, 76, 116–132.
Gemmell, N., Kneller, R. & Sanz, I. (2011). “The Timing and Persistence of Fiscal Policy Impacts on Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries”. The Economic Journal, 121(550), F33-F58.
Glasner, David, (2017). “Rules Versus Discretion in Monetary Policy Historically Contemplated”. Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, 54(PA), 24-41.
Hadian, M. & Dargahi, H. (2021). “Macroeconomic Effects of Current and Development Expenditures of the Government in Iran: DSGE Approach”. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 8(1), 241-272. (In Persian).
Haghighat, J. & Moharam Joudi, N. (2017). “Investigating the Effects of Governmental Expenditure Shock on Gross Domestic Product Growth in Iran: ARDL Approach”. Economic Modelling, 10(36), 141-166. (In Persian).
Heidari, H. & Saeidpour, L. (2015). “Analyze the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks and Fiscal Multipliers of Iran’s Economy in the New-Keynesian Framework”. Economic Growth and Development Research, 5(20), 78-61. (In Persian).
Hollmayr, J. & Kühl, M. (2019). “Monetary–Fiscal Interaction and Quantitative Easing”. Economics Letters, 174, 200-207.
Jaafari Lylab, P., Haghighat, J., Asgharpur, H. & Salmani, B. (2018). “Intractions of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Iran: DSGE Model”. The Journal of Economic Policy, 10(19), 167-211. (In Persian).
Jafari Samimi, A., Khiabani, N., Mila Elmi, Z. & Akbarpour Roshan, N. (2017). “The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Macroeconomic Variables: New Evidence from a DSGE Model”. International Journal of Business and Development Studies, 9(2), 29-54.
Jeong, S. H., Lee, Y. & Kang, S. H. (2020). “Government Spending and Sustainable Economic Growth: Based on First-And Second-Level COFOG Data”. Public Money & Management, 40(2), 140-148.
Kakavandi, M. M., Rahbar, F., Mehrara, M. & Sarem, M. (2021). “Presenting a Model of how the Central Bank Policies Affect Macroeconomic Variables: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach”. The Journal of Economic Policy, 13(25), 109-142. (In Persian).
Khalilzadeh, J., Heidari, H. & Bashiri, S. (2020). “The Effect of Government Expenditures and Banking Credits Volume Considering Monetary Policies on Economic Growth: DSGE Model (Case Study of Iran)”. Economic Growth and Development Research, 10(39), 75-92. (In Persian).
Khiabani, N. & Delfan, M. (2017). “The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Macroeconomic Activities: Evidence from Iran”. Economics Research, 17(67), 67-91. (In Persian).
Komijani, A. & Tavakolian, H. (2012). “Monetary Policy Under Fiscal Dominance and Implicit Inflation Target in Iran: A DSGE Approach”. Journal of Economic Modeling Research, 2(8), 87-117 (In Persian).
Kotera, G. & Sakai, S. (2018). “Policy Simulation of Government Expenditure and Taxation Based on the DSGE Model”. Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, Public Policy Review, 14(4), 613-640.
Lahutin, V. (2017). “Economic Policy of the State and Effects of its Realization”. Herald of Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics, 4, 5–20.
Leeper, E. M. & Leith, C. (2016). “Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon”. Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, 2, 2305-2415.
Linnemann, L. & Schabert, A. (2003). “Fiscal Policy in the New Neoclassical Synthesis”. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 35(6), 911-29.
Manzoor, D. & Taghipour, A. (2015). “A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for an Oil Exporting and Small Open Economy: The Case of Iran”. Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 23(75), 7-44. (In Persian).
Mishhenko, V. & Lon, I. (2017). “The Role of Monetary Regulation in Stimulating Economic”. Finance of Ukraine, 4, 75-93.
Perotti, Roberto & Monacelli, Tommas, 2008. “Fiscal Policy, Wealth Effects and Markups”. CEPR Discussion Papers 7099, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.1-54.
Raeisi Gavgani, Z. S., Mohammadi, T., Ghaffari, F., & Memar Nejhad, A. (2018). “The Asymmetric Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks on Iranian Economy: DSGE Model with Second order Approximation”. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 23(77), 37-72. (In Persian).
Saadatmehr, M. & Ghafari, H. (2019). “The Comparative Study of the Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Economy of Iran: DSGE Model Approach”. The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies, 6(1), 51-74. (In Persian).
Salehian Behrouz, M. & Erfani, A. (2019). “Analyzing Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the form of an Open DSGE Model for the Iranian Economy”. New Economy and Trade, 13(4), 159-179. (In Persian).
Sargent, T. J. & Wallace, N. (1984). “Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic”. In Monetarism in the United Kingdom (pp. 15-41), London, Palgrave Macmillan.
Sharifi, S. M. R., Haghighat, A., Ebrahimi, M. & Aminifard, A. (2021). “Investigating the Effect of Financial Development and Tax on the Underground Economy; Evidence from Iran's Economy”. Economic Growth and Development Research, 12(46), 67-88. (In Persian).
Simionescu, M., Lazányi, K., Sopková, G., Dobeš, K. & Adam, P. B. (2017). “Determinants of Economic Growth in V4 Countries and Romania”. Journal of Competitiveness, 8(1), 103–116.
Smets, F. & Wouters, R. (2007). “Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach”. American Economic Review, 97(3), 586-606.
Stähler, N., and Thomas, C. (2011). “A DSGE Model for Fiscal Policy Simulations”. Economic Modelling, 29(2), 239-261.
Tavakolian. H, Taherpour. J, & Mohsenpour, F. (2019). “Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in Iran: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach”.Economic Research and Policles, 27(90), 195-241. (In Persian).
Tavakolian, H. & Komijani, A. (2012). “Monetary Policy Under Fiscal Dominance and Implicit Inflation Target in Iran: A DSGE Approach”. Economic Modeling Research Kharazmi University, 3(8), 87-117. (In Persian).
Tavakolian, H. (2021). “Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models in Iran: Deterministic or Stochastic Steady State?”. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 55(4), 781-812. (In Persian).
Zamani, R. & Majidi, M. (2021). “Optimum and Threshold Rates of Government Debt in Iran”. Economic Growth and Development Research, 11(34), 103-124. (In Persian). | ||
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 302 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 187 |