| تعداد نشریات | 49 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 1,261 |
| تعداد مقالات | 10,847 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 22,204,615 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 14,929,179 |
شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر تحققپذیری سند ملی آمایش سرزمین در ایران با رویکرد آیندهنگاری | ||
| فصلنامه علمی پژوهش های بوم شناسی شهری | ||
| مقاله 3، دوره 16، شماره 4(پیاپی 41)، دی 1404، صفحه 41-60 اصل مقاله (1.73 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی-پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/grup.2024.71487.2862 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مهدی ابراهیمی بوزانی* 1؛ فهیمه فدایی جزی2 | ||
| 1استادیار، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکتری، گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| سند ملی آمایش سرزمین بهعنوان برنامهای راهبردی برای توسعه متوازن و پایدار کشور تدوین شده است، اما تجربیات گذشته نشان داده که اجرای کامل آن با چالشهای متعددی روبرو بوده است. هدف این پژوهش بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر تحققپذیری سند ملی آمایش سرزمین مصوب 1399 با رویکرد آیندهنگاری است. پژوهش حاضر از نوع کاربردی و با رویکردی توصیفی-تحلیلی و اکتشافی انجام شده است. جامعه آماری شامل 11 نفر از متخصصین و کارشناسان است که از طریق نمونهگیری گلولهبرفی انتخاب شدهاند. روایی ابزار تحقیق توسط سه متخصص حوزه پژوهش تأیید گردید. دادهها از طریق منابع کتابخانهای در بخش نظری و تکنیک دلفی در بخش عملی جمعآوری شد. در نهایت 47 عامل مؤثر شناسایی شد. برای تحلیل دادهها از روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و نرمافزار میکمک استفاده گردید تا میزان تأثیرگذاری عوامل اولیه بر یکدیگر ارزیابی شود. نتایج نشان میدهد که عواملی چون ارائه الگوهای همسان برای توسعه شهرستانها، نامشخص بودن الزامات تحققپذیری سیاستها، عدم حضور نهادهای دخیل، غفلت از ارائه راهحلهای اجرایی، عدم توجه به اصول اقتصاد مقاومتی و توسعه درونزا و کمتوجهی به مسائل محیطزیستی و اجتماعی بیشترین تأثیر را در عدم تحقق سند دارند. این یافتهها میتواند به بهبود فرآیند اجرای سند و دستیابی به اهداف آن کمک کند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| تحققپذیری؛ سند ملی آمایش سرزمین؛ آینده نگاری؛ ایران | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Identifying the Factors Affecting the Realization of the National Land Development Document in Iran with a Foresight Approach | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mehdi Ebrahimi Bozani1؛ Fahime Fadaei jazi2 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 2Ph.D Student, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The National Land Use Master Plan has been developed as a strategic program for the balanced and sustainable development of the country. However, past experiences have shown that its full implementation has faced numerous challenges. The aim of this research is to examine the factors affecting the feasibility of the National Land Use Master Plan approved in 2019 (from a foresight perspective. This study is applied in nature and follows a descriptive-analytical and exploratory approach. The statistical population consists of 11 specialists and experts selected through snowball sampling. The validity of the research instrument was confirmed by three experts in the field. Data were collected through library resources for the theoretical section and the Delphi technique for the practical section. A total of 47 influential factors were identified. For data analysis, the cross-impact analysis method and the MICMAC software were used to assess the impact of primary factors on each other. The results show that factors such as providing standardized models for the development of districts, unclear requirements for the feasibility of policies, the absence of involved institutions, neglecting to provide practical solutions, lack of attention to resistant economy principles and endogenous development, and insufficient consideration of environmental and social issues have the greatest impact on the non-implementation of the plan. These findings can help improve the implementation process of the plan and achieve its objectives. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Feasibility, The National Document of Land Planning, Foresight, Iran | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Abrantes, P., Fontes, I., Gomes, E., & Rocha, J. (2016). Compliance of land cover changes with municipal land use planning: Evidence from the Lisbon metropolitan region (1990–2007). Land use policy, 51, 120-134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.10.023 Ahmadi, M., & Molaei, A. (2024). A critique of national and provincial spatial planning documents from the perspective of Article 48 of the Constitution. Regional Economics and Development. https://doi.org/10.22067/erd.2024.85493.1214. )In Persian( Akbari, Y., Imani Jajarmi, H., & Rostamalizadeh, V. (2016). Analysis of Land use Barriers in Iran. Science and Technology Policy Letters, 06(3), 5-13. )In Persian( Amo, E., Hataminejad, H,. (2018). Pathology and evaluation of land improvement plans in Iran. Regional Planning Scientific Quarterly, 9(34), 27-38. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22516735.1398.9.34.3.8. )In Persian( Anam, M.Z., Bari, A.M., Paul, S.K., Ali, S.M., & Kabir, G. (2022). Modelling the drivers of solar energy development in an emerging economy: Implications for sustainable development goals. Resources, Conservation & Recycling Advances, 13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcradv.2022.200068 Asan, S.S., & Asan, U. (2007). Qualitative cross-impact analysis with time consideration. Technological forecasting and social change, 74(5), 627-644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.011 Azimi Bolourian, A (2008) The Concept of Land Use in Development Planning: Origins, Evolution and Experience of Iran, Tehran: Rasa Publishing House. )In Persian( Bañuls, V.A., & Turoff, M. (2011). Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1579-1602. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.014 Battisti, F., Campo, O., & Manganelli, B. (2022). Land Management in Territorial Planning: Analysis, Appraisal, Strategies for Sustainability—A Review of Studies and Research. Land, 11(7), 1007. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11071007 Briassoulis, H. (2019). Combating land degradation and desertification: The land-use planning quandary. Land, 8(2), 27. https://doi.org/10.3390/land8020027 Brodzicki, T., Ciołek, D., Komornicki, T., Mogiła, Z., Szlachta, J., Zaleski, J., & Zaucha, J. (2017). Territorial cohesion: A missing link between economic growth and welfare. Lessons from the Baltic Tiger. Calkins, H.W. (1979). The planning monitor: an accountability theory of plan evaluation. Environment and Planning A, 11(7), 745-758. https://doi.org/10.1068/a11074 Decoville, A. (2018). Use and misuse of indicators in spatial planning: the example of land take. Planning Practice & Research, 33(1), 70-85. https://doi.org/10.1080/02697459.2017.1378981 Dewangan, D. K., Agrawal, R., & Sharma, V. (2015). Enablers for competitiveness of Indian manufacturing sector: an ISM-fuzzy MICMAC analysis. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 189, 416-432. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.03.200 Dost Mohammadi, H., & Ekhtiari Amiri, R. (2019). Political Development; Iran Efficiency and Legitimacy Crisis’s and Good Governance. Journal of Political Strategy, 3(10), 91-123. magiran.com/p2066873. magiran.com/p2066873 )In Persian( Edita, A., & Dalia, P. (2022). Challenges and problems of agricultural land use changes in Lithuania according to territorial planning documents: Case of Vilnius district municipality. Land Use Policy, 117, 106125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106125 Ekpodessi, S.G.N., & Nakamura, H. (2018). Land use and management in Benin Republic: An evaluation of the effectiveness of Land Law 2013-01. Land Use Policy, 78, 61-69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.06.025 Friedmann, J. (2011). Insurgencies: Essays in planning theory. Routledge. Ghaderi Hajat, M., & Golkarami, A. (2020). Investigating and Analyzing the Geopolitical Attitude of the High-Level Documents of Spatial Planning in Iran. Geopolitics Quarterly, 16(58), 58-87. Doi: 20.1001.1.17354331.1399.16.58.3.1. )In Persian( Godarzi, M., & Hajiani, E. (2023). Futurology of the implementation of National Land Use Document. Town and Country Planning, 15(1), 1-17. doi: 10.22059/jtcp.2023.348562.670349. )In Persian( Godet, M., Durance, P., & Gerber, A. (2008). Strategic Foresight La Prospective Use and Misuse of Scenario Building, Paris, France. Hammad, A., & Tumeizi, A. (2012). Land degradation: socioeconomic and environmental causes and consequences in the eastern Mediterranean. Land Degradation & Development, 23(3), 216-226. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.1069 Healey, P. (2006). Urban complexity and spatial strategies: Towards a relational planning for our times. Routledge. Jabbari, H., Sameni, A., & Ebrahimi Khosafi, M. (2017). Explaining The Requirements for Drafting a National Document For The Development of The Physical Territory. Physical Social Planning, 4(2), 75-92. )In Persian( Jafarian, B., SARVAR, R., BORNA, R. (2019). Key Factors Affecting the Future Status of Tehran Province Spatial Planning Based on Future Studies. GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL OF TERRITORY, 16(61 ), 17-36. SID. )In Persian( javanshiri, M., Namdarzadeh, M., & Nabiuni, S. (2021). Identification and analysis of key drivers affecting the feasibility of Land use planning (Case study: Khorasan Razavi province). Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies, 12(43), 62-87. )In Persian( Kinzer, K. (2016). Missed connections: A critical analysis of interconnections between public participation and plan implementation literature. Journal of Planning Literature, 31(3), 299-316. https://doi.org/10.1177/0885412216652889 Koroso, N.H., & Zevenbergen, J.A. (2024). Urban land management under rapid urbanization: Exploring the link between urban land policies and urban land use efficiency in Ethiopia. Cities, 153, 105269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2024.105269 Law of the Sixth Development Plan of the Islamic Republic of Iran (1396-1400), (approved on 12/14/1395). )In Persian( Law on permanent orders of country development programs approved on 11/10/1395. )In Persian( Liu, Y., Wang, J., & Deng, X. (2008). Rocky land desertification and its driving forces in the karst areas of rural Guangxi, Southwest China. Journal of Mountain Science, 5, 350-357. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-008-0217-6 Malý, J. (2018). Polycentric urban systems and territorial cohesion. In Territorial cohesion: The urban dimension, 69-89. Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-03386-6_4 Manouchehri, S., Barghi, H., & Ghanbari, Y. (2023). Structural Analysis of the Development Drivers Affecting the Realization of Land use Planning at the Kurdistan Province Based on the Role-Playing of Rural Areas. Geography and Development, 21(72), 205-238. doi: 10.22111/gdij.2023.44024.3462. )In Persian( Nematpour, M., Khodadadi, M., Rezaei, N., & Makian, S. (2021). Structural analysis of the development of the Iranian tourism market employing a MICMAC approach: a new long-range planning method to attract the ASEAN international tourist market. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Insights, 4(4), 393-417. https://doi.org/10.1108/JHTI-04-2020-0053 Nouri, M.S., & Boujelbene, Y. (2022). Determinants of the Export Performance of Tunisian SMEs. Analysis Trough the MICMAC Method. DOI: 10.36346/sarjbm.2022.v04i01.001 Office of Economic Studies, Vice President of Economic Researches of the Islamic Council Research Center, (2019), Collection of Regional Studies and Land Studies in Iran (9). Pathology and analysis of provincial study documents from an economic perspective, subject code: 220; Machine gun number: 17396. )In Persian( Ohashi, H., Fukasawa, K., Ariga, T., Matsui, T., & Hijioka, Y. (2019). High‐resolution national land use scenarios under a shrinking population in Japan. Transactions in GIS, 23(4), 786-804. https://doi.org/10.1111/tgis.12525 Omran, A., Khorish, M., & Saleh, M. (2014). Structural analysis with knowledge-based MICMAC approach. International Journal of Computer Applications, 86(5). doi:10.5120/14985-3290 rashnoofar, A., arefi, M., & yusefvand, J. (2019). Reviewing the bottlenecks and problems of development programs in Iran with an emphasis on land management and providing strategies to improve it with the Model (ANP). Geography and Human Relationships, 1(4), 149-186. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.26453851.1398.1.4.11.2. )In Persian( Reed, M.S., Buenemann, M., Atlhopheng, J., Akhtar‐Schuster, M., Bachmann, F., Bastin, G., ... & Verzandvoort, S. (2011). Cross‐scale monitoring and assessment of land degradation and sustainable land management: A methodological framework for knowledge management. Land Degradation & Development, 22(2), 261-271. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.1087 Salih, A.A., Ganawa, E.T., & Elmahl, A.A. (2017). Spectral mixture analysis (SMA) and change vector analysis (CVA) methods for monitoring and mapping land degradation/desertification in arid and semiarid areas (Sudan), using Landsat imagery. The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science, 20, S21-S29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrs.2016.12.008 Sameni, A (2018) Pathology of land use in the country's planning system, Development and Foresight Research Center, ID code 98-7-10116. )In Persian( Sameni, A., & Zebardast, E. (2023). Feasible pathology of land use in Iran Case study: the fourth round of land use studies. Majlis and Rahbord, 30 (115), 127-162. doi: 10.22034/mr.2022.5403.5159. )In Persian( Sanii, E. (2010) Land preparation is a way to balance the urban system and development. Economic magazine (bimonthly review of economic issues and policies). 11 (9 and 10),169-180. )In Persian( Sarvar, R., & Khaliji, M.A. (2023). Pathology of Land Use Planning in Guilan province. Geographical Studies of Coastal Areas Journal, 3(4), 1-20. doi: 10.22124/gscaj.2023.21365.1136. )In Persian( Sharifzadegan, M.H., & Razavi Dehkordi, S.A. (2010). Evaluation of National Strategic Spatial Planning Process in Iran with Recommendations for Improvement. Environmental Sciences, 7(4), 87-100. )In Persian( Sirius, A., Cnam, G., Cnam, M.R., & Cnam, F.R. (2003). Structural analysis with the MICMAC method & Actors' strategy with MACTOR method. Futures Research Methodology,2,1-70 .https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2fc144b0abe917df0776bae426b650ee9/kamil205 taghvaee, M., bekmohammadi, H., Zali, N., & Kasaei, M. (2017). Analysis of Barriers & factors affecting the implementation of projects & spatial planning in Tehran province. Town and Country Planning, 9(1), 1-27. doi: 10.22059/jtcp.2017.60199. )In Persian( Tavakoli, M., Ebrahimi, A., Hamidi, S. (2018). Analysis of Iran spatial planning zoning pattern from post-Constitutional Revolution till present. SPATIAL PLANNING (MODARES HUMAN SCIENCES), 22(1 ), 143-179. )In Persian( Tong, S., Zhiming, F., Yanzhao, Y., Yumei, L., & Yanjuan, W. (2018). Research on land resource carrying capacity: Progress and prospects. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 9(4), 331-340. https://doi.org/10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2018.04.001 United Nations. (2015).Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 25 September; A/RES/70/1; 4th Plenary Meeting; United Nations: New York, NY, USA, 2015. Wieland, R., Lakes, T., Yunfeng, H., & Nendel, C. (2019). Identifying drivers of land degradation in Xilingol, China, between 1975 and 2015. Land Use Policy, 83, 543-559. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.02.013 Winslow, M.D. (Ed.). (2011). Special issue on understanding dryland degradation trends. Wiley-Blackwell. Xie, H., Zhang, Y., Wu, Z., & Lv, T. (2020). A bibliometric analysis on land degradation: Current status, development, and future directions. Land, 9(1), 28. https://doi.org/10.3390/land9010028 | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 376 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 236 |
||