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اثرات مصرف سوخت‌های فسیلی، انتشار co2 و قیمت نفت خام بر رشد اقتصادی | ||
| پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی | ||
| مقاله 6، دوره 12، شماره 48، مهر 1401، صفحه 97-110 اصل مقاله (223.38 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/egdr.2022.61155.6334 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| امیرعلی فرهنگ* | ||
| استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| رشد تقاضای روز افزون انرژی موجب رشد اقتصادی و همزمان موجب افزایش آلودگی و تخریب محیط زیست است. با توجه به اهمیت رشد اقتصادی و محیط زیست، درک نحوه تأثیرگذاری متغیرهای انرژی و آلودگی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورها برای سیاست گذاران و اقتصاددانان ضروری است. بر این اساس، مطالعه حاضر اثرات مصرف سوخت های فسیلی، انتشار CO2 و قیمت نفت خام بر رشد اقتصادی طی دوره زمانی2000-2019 در کشورهای خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا (منا) را بررسی نموده است. جهت انجام تجزیه و تحلیل از روش پانل میانگین گروهی تلفیقی (PMG) و حداقل مربعات پویا(DOLS) استفاده شده است و کشورهای مورد مطالعه پژوهش علاوه بر مطالعه بصورت منطقه ای منا، به دو زیر گروه شامل کشورهای صادر کننده و واردکننده نفت خام نیز تقسیم شده اند. نتایج تخمین روش PMGنشان می‌دهد که افزایش یک درصدی مصرف انرژی سوخت‌های فسیلی، انتشار CO2 و قیمت نفت خام به ترتیب موجب افزایش 183/0، 013/0و 058/0 درصدی رشد اقتصادی برای کشورهای گروه صادرکننده نفت خام شده است در حالی افزایش یک درصدی قیمت نفت خام در کوتاه و در بلند مدت به ترتیب موجب کاهش0260/0 و 409/0 درصدی رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای گروه واردکننده نفت خام می گردد. نتایج تخمین روش DOLS نیز، مشابه نتایج روش PMG بوده و آن را تأیید می‌کند و بیانگر برخوداری استحکام کافی در پژوهش است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| سوخت فسیلی؛ قیمت نفت؛ PMG؛ DOLS؛ رشد اقتصادی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The effects of fossil fuels consumption, CO2 emissions and crude oil prices on economic growth | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| amir ali farhang | ||
| Assistant Professor, Department of Economy, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Growing demand for energy leads to economic growth and at the same time increases pollution and environmental degradation. Given the importance of economic growth and the environment, it is important for policymakers and economists to understand how energy variables and pollution affect the economic growth of countries. According to this, the present study investigated the effects of fossil fuel consumption, CO2 emissions and crude oil prices on economic growth during the period 2000-2019 in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). For analysis, the Pooled mean group (PMG) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) methods have been used and the countries studied in the study, in addition to the regional study of MENA, are divided into two subgroups, including countries exporting and importing crude oil. The results of PMG estimation show that a one percent increase in fossil fuel energy consumption, CO2 emissions and crude oil prices increased economic growth by 0.183, 0.013 and 0.058 percent for the crude oil exporting countries, respectively, while increasing by one percent. Crude oil prices in the short and long term will reduce the economic growth in the countries importing crude oil by 0.0260 and 0.409% respectively. The estimation results of DOLS method are similar to the results of PMG method and confirm it and indicate that the research has sufficient strength. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Fossil fuel energy consumption, oil prices, PMG, DOLS, economic growth | ||
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