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جفت‌شدگی یا جداسازی رابطه انتشار CO2 مرتبط با انرژی و رشد اقتصادی: شواهدی از کشورهای منتخب خاورمیانه | ||
| پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی | ||
| مقاله 7، دوره 14، شماره 53، دی 1402، صفحه 142-123 اصل مقاله (972.07 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/egdr.2023.66807.6665 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| مهدی فتح آبادی* | ||
| استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| آلودگی محیط‌زیست یک تهدید جدی برای توسعه پایدار کشورهای خاورمیانه به‌ویژه ایران می‌باشد. لذا در این مقاله جفت‌شدگی یا جداسازی رابطه انتشار CO2 مرتبط با انرژی با رشد اقتصادی در ۶ کشور خاورمیانه در دوره 2019-1990 تحلیل گردید. ابتدا با روش شاخص میانگین لگاریتمی دیویژیا (LMDI)، مکانیسم‌های پیشران انتشار CO2 کمی‌سازی و سپس به عوامل ضریب انتشار CO2، شدت انرژی، فعالیت اقتصادی و جمعیت تجزیه شد. یافته‌های وضعیت جداسازی با استفاده از مدل تاپیو نشان می‌دهد جمعیت و فعالیت اقتصادی پیشران‌های اصلی انتشار CO2در ۶ کشور منتخب خاورمیانه بوده‌اند. نتایج تحلیل کشش جداسازی نشان داد ایران در دوره‌های 1999-1990 و 2019-2015 در وضعیت جداسازی ضعیف بوده؛ یعنی افزایش همزمان رشد اقتصادی و انتشار کربن البته با رشد اقتصادی سریع‌تر؛ اما در دوره 2014-2000 وضعیت جفت‌شدگی در حال گسترش شکل گرفته که بیانگر افزایش انتشار کربن در کنار رشد اقتصادی است. امارات و عربستان در سال‌های اخیر به یک وضعیت ایده‌آل رسیده‌اند. این دو کشور از وضعیت جداسازی منفی و جفت‌شدگی در حال گسترش به حالت جداسازی قوی تغییر وضعیت داده‌اند که در آن رشد اقتصادی همراه با کاهش انتشار کربن بوده است. کویت و ترکیه در سه دهه اخیر در وضعیت‌های جداسازی ضعیف و منفی در حال گسترش بوده‌اند که در آن رشد اقتصادی با افزایش انتشار کربن همراه بوده. مصر نیز ابتدای دوره با وضعیت جداسازی ضعیف و سپس به وضعیت جداسازی منفی در حال گسترش تغییر یافته است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| جفت‌شدگی و جداسازی؛ انتشار CO2؛ رشد اقتصادی؛ خاورمیانه | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Coupling or Decoupling Relationship Between CO2 Emissions Related to Energy and Economic Growth: Middle East Selected Countries Evidence | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mehdi Fathabadi | ||
| Assistant Prof., Faculty of Economics. Firouzkoh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firouzkoh, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Environmental pollution is a serious threat to the sustainable development of Middle East countries, especially Iran. Therefore, in this article was analyzed the decoupling relationship between CO2 emissions energy-related and economic growth in 6 Middle East countries in period 1990-2019. First, CO2 emissions driving mechanisms were quantified using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, and then decomposed into factors of CO2 emission coefficient, energy intensity, economic activity and population. The decoupling state findings using the Tapio model show that population and economic activities factors were main drivers of CO2 emissions in these countries. The results of decoupling elasticity showed that Iran was in a weak decoupling state in period of 1990-1999 and 2015-2019; It means the simultaneous increase of economic growth and carbon emissions, of course, by faster economic growth; Iran had also an expansive coupling state in period of 2000-2014, which indicates that CO2 emissions increase along economic growth. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have reached an ideal situation in recent years. These countries have moved from a negative decoupling and expansive coupling state to a strong decoupling state, where economic growth has been accompanied by a reduction in carbon emissions. The Kuwait and Turkey have been in weak decoupling and negative expansive decoupling states in the last 3 decades, in which economic growth was accompanied by an increase in carbon emissions. At the beginning, the Egypt has changed to a weak decoupling state and then moved to an expansive negative decoupling state. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Coupling or Decoupling, CO2 Emission, Economic Growth, Middle East | ||
| مراجع | ||
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