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اثرات رفاهی مالیات بر مصرف سیگار مندرج در لایحه بودجه و نقش متغیرهای دموگرافیک در مناطق شهری ایران | ||
فصلنامه علمی پژوهش های اقتصاد صنعتی | ||
دوره 7، شماره 23، خرداد 1402، صفحه 1-22 اصل مقاله (1.83 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: کاربردی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/jier.2023.67232.1376 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
علی اصغر سالم1؛ معصومه عزیزخانی* 2 | ||
1دانشیار گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران. | ||
2کارشناسی ارشد کارگروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
شیوع مصرف دخانیات در سطح خرد باعث تغییر ترکیب و سهم گروههای کالایی در سبد مصرفی خانوار شده و به تبع آن میزان تقاضا برای اقلام ضروری و ارزشمند کاهش مییابد. با عنایت به نرخ پایین مالیات بر دخانیات و بیتأثیر بودن آن در میزان مصرف طی سالهای گذشته، طبق لایحه مصوب بودجه، از ابتدای سال 1402برخلاف سنوات قبل، مالیات برای هر نخ سیگار در نظر گرفته میشود. از اینرو در مطالعه حاضر با بهکارگیری مدل سیستم تقاضای EASI و استخراج کششهای قیمتی و درآمدی، به بررسی تأثیر اجرای سیاست مذکور بر رفاه خانوار مناطق شهری ایران بر اساس اطلاعات سال 1399-1398 همراه با شبیهسازی این اطلاعات در سال1401و لحاظ برخی متغیرهای جمعیتشناختی در ابعاد فردی و اجتماعی پرداخته شده است. نتایج نشان میدهد، سیگار داخلی و خارجی از نظر قیمتی، اقلامی کمکشش هستند و استفاده از سیاستهای قیمتی(مانند مالیات) به لحاظ کاهش مصرف، اثر زیادی ندارند؛ از جانب دیگر، کشش درآمدی کمتر از یک، آنها را را جزء کالاهای ضروری خانوار قرار داده و اجرای سیاست مذکور با افزایش هزینه مربوط به دخانیات، سبب کاهش رفاه خانوار به میزان 1،448،939 ریال میشود. همچنین متغیرهایی مانند حضور نوجوان در خانواده، تعداد بزرگسالان، جنسیت، تأهل، بیوه و مطلقه بودن سرپرست خانوار) تأثیر معنادار و مثبت بر تقاضای سیگار داخلی و خارجی و متغیرهای حضور کودک در خانواده، شاغل و درآمد ن سرپرست خانوار و سالهای تحصیل سرپرست خانوار و همسر وی تأثیر منفی بر تقاضای مصرف سیگار داخلی و خارجی داشته است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
مالیات بر مصرف؛ دخانیات؛ متغیرهای جمعیتشناختی؛ شبیهسازی دادههای خرد؛ مدل سیستم تقاضای EASI | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
The Welfare Effects of Consumption Tax on Cigarette Included in the Budget Bill and the Role of Demographic Variables in Urban Areas of Iran | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
ali asghar salem1؛ Masoumeh Azizkhani2 | ||
1Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Allameh Tabataba'i, Tehran, Iran. | ||
2Department of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Kharazmi, Tehran, Iran. | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
The spread of tobacco consumption at the retail level has changed the composition and share of goods groups in the household consumption basket, and as a result, the demand for essential and valuable items has decreased. Due to the low tax rate on tobacco and its ineffectiveness in the amount of consumption during the past years, according to the approved budget bill, from the beginning of 2023, a tax will be considered on each cigarette stick, contrary to previous years. Therefore, in the present study, using the EASI demand system model and deriving price and income elasticities, the impact of implementing the mentioned policy on the welfare of households in urban areas of Iran is examined based on the information from the years 2019-2020, along with simulating this information in the year 2022 and taking into account certain demographic variables in individual and social dimensions. The results show that both domestic and imported cigarettes are in aspect of price, are low elastic items, and the use of price policies (such as taxes) does not have high effect on reducing consumption; on the other hand, their income elasticity is less than one, categorizing them as essential household items and implementing the mentioned policy by increasing the cost of tobacco leads to a decrease in household welfare by 1,448,939 rials. Also, variables such as the presence of adolescents in the family, the number of adults, gender, marital status, and widowhood/being divorced of the head of household have a significant and positive impact and variables such as the presence of children in the family, employment and head of the household’s income, and the years of education of both the head of household and his/her spouse have a negative impact on the demand for domestic and imported cigarettes. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Consumption tax, Tobacco, Demographic variables, Microdata simulation, EASI demand system model | ||
مراجع | ||
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