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رنجبر فلاح, محمد رضا, اسکندری, مائده. (1404). برآورد ضرایب تأثیر شیوه های تامین مالی به تفکیک تسهیلات مبادله ای، تسهیلات مشارکتی و افزایش سرمایه بر ارزش افزوده استان‌های ایران ( دوره 1399-1390). فصلنامه علمی زیست فناوری گیاهان زراعی, 8(28), 107-124. doi: 10.30473/jier.2025.72608.1469
محمد رضا رنجبر فلاح; مائده اسکندری. "برآورد ضرایب تأثیر شیوه های تامین مالی به تفکیک تسهیلات مبادله ای، تسهیلات مشارکتی و افزایش سرمایه بر ارزش افزوده استان‌های ایران ( دوره 1399-1390)". فصلنامه علمی زیست فناوری گیاهان زراعی, 8, 28, 1404, 107-124. doi: 10.30473/jier.2025.72608.1469
رنجبر فلاح, محمد رضا, اسکندری, مائده. (1404). 'برآورد ضرایب تأثیر شیوه های تامین مالی به تفکیک تسهیلات مبادله ای، تسهیلات مشارکتی و افزایش سرمایه بر ارزش افزوده استان‌های ایران ( دوره 1399-1390)', فصلنامه علمی زیست فناوری گیاهان زراعی, 8(28), pp. 107-124. doi: 10.30473/jier.2025.72608.1469
رنجبر فلاح, محمد رضا, اسکندری, مائده. برآورد ضرایب تأثیر شیوه های تامین مالی به تفکیک تسهیلات مبادله ای، تسهیلات مشارکتی و افزایش سرمایه بر ارزش افزوده استان‌های ایران ( دوره 1399-1390). فصلنامه علمی زیست فناوری گیاهان زراعی, 1404; 8(28): 107-124. doi: 10.30473/jier.2025.72608.1469

برآورد ضرایب تأثیر شیوه های تامین مالی به تفکیک تسهیلات مبادله ای، تسهیلات مشارکتی و افزایش سرمایه بر ارزش افزوده استان‌های ایران ( دوره 1399-1390)

فصلنامه علمی پژوهش های اقتصاد صنعتی
دوره 8، شماره 28، تیر 1403، صفحه 107-124    اصل مقاله (665.11 K)
نوع مقاله: کاربردی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30473/jier.2025.72608.1469
نویسندگان
محمد رضا رنجبر فلاح* ؛ مائده اسکندری
پژوهشکده پولی و بانکی بانک مرکزی
چکیده
در دهه 1390 تا 1399 اقتصاد ایران بدلیل تحریمهای اقتصادی، مدیریت ناکارآمد، بهره وری پایین و سیاستهای نامناسب اقتصادی بطور متوسط با نرخ رشد اقتصادی نزدیک به صفر مواجه بوده است. در این راستا سیاستگذاران پولی کشور تلاش کردند تا با استفاده از ابزار پرداخت تسهیلات از تولید حمایت کرده و سبب رشد ارزش افزوده کشور شوند. مسئله اصلی تحقیق حاضر این است که آیا پرداخت این تسهیلات توسط صنعت بانکداری باعث افزایش ارزش افزوده استانهای کشور شده است؟ از آنجایی که تسهیلات پرداختی در دو قالب عقود مبادله ای (مرابحه، فروش اقساطی، اجاره به شرط تملیک، سلف، خرید دین، جعاله و استصناع) و عقود مشارکتی (مشارکت مدنی، مشارکت حقوقی، مضاربه، مزارعه و مساقات) بوده آیا بین ضریب تأثیر این دو گروه تفاوت معنادار آماری وجود داشته است؟ آیا مطابق انتظارات نظری تسهیلات مشارکتی که از ماهیت بلند مدت، تامین سرمایه و اثر مستقیم بر تولید و عرضه کالاها و خدمات برخوردارند، تاثیر بیشتری بر رشد ارزش افزوده در استان‌های مختلف در مقایسه با تسهیلات مبادله ای که از ماهیت کوتاه مدت، واسطه ای با امکان تعیین نرخ سود از قبل و اثر بر تقاضای کالاها و خدمات برخوردارند، داشته است؟  براساس اختلاف دو دیدگاه کینزی و کلاسیک، آیا مطابق دیدگاه  کلاسیک پول خنثی است و نمی تواند موجب رشد تولید شود بلکه صرفاً بر نرخ تورم اثر می گذارد و یا مطابق دیدگاه کینزی ابزار سیاستهای پولی و خلق و پرداخت اعتبارات بانکی در بازار پول می تواند از کانال مخارج سبب رشد تولید و ارزش افزوده گردد؟ برای پاسخ به این سوالات که همان فرضیه های تحقیق هستند از روش تخمین اقتصاد سنجی به شیوه پانل دیتا استفاده شده و یکایک آمارهای استانی شامل ارزش افزوده واقعی، سرمایه (سرمایه شرکتهای بورسی شده هر استان از سال 1390-1399) ، تعداد نیروی کار شاغل، مانده تسهیلات با عقود مشارکتی و مبادله ای گردآوری و در تخمین مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. بر اساس نتایج تحقیق مهمترین عامل تأثیرگذار بر ارزش افزوده استانها متغیر Kt (حجم سرمایه انباشته شرکتهای بورسی) بوده است. برخلاف فرضیه تحقیق در مورد اثربخش تر بودن تسهیلات مشارکتی نسبت به مبادله ای، هیچ تفاوتی بین این دو گروه، نیست  مگر زمانی که تبدیل به متغیر سرمایه ( Kt ) شده و در صورتهای مالی شرکتها بعنوان عامل تولید مؤثر ظاهر شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عقود مشارکتی؛ عقود مبادله ای؛ تسهیلات بانکی؛ ارزش افزوده استانی؛ سیاستهای پولی کینزی؛ تأثیر سرمایه شرکتهای بورسی بر ارزش افزوده. خنثی بودن پول
عنوان مقاله [English]
Estimating the impact of financing methods by separating Transactional Loans, Partnership Loans and Capital increase on the value added of the Iran's provinces (2011-2020 period)
نویسندگان [English]
Mohamad Reza Ranjbar Fallah؛ Maedeh Eskandari
Board member of Economics faculty
چکیده [English]
In the decade of 2011-2020, the Iranian economy faced an average economic growth rate close to zero due to economic sanctions, inefficient management, low productivity, and inappropriate economic policies. In this regard, the country's monetary policymakers tried to support production by using the tool of payment of loans for increase the country's  value added. The main issue of the present study is whether the payment of these loans by the banking industry has increased the value  added of the country's provinces? Since the payment loans were in two forms:  Transactional contracts (Murabahah, installment sale, lease with condition of ownership, Salaf, purchase of religion, Ja'ala and Istisna) and partnership (Incorporating) contracts (civil partnership, legal partnership, Mudaraba, Mazareh and Musaqat), was there a statistically significant difference between the impact coefficient of these two groups? According to theoretical expectations, have cooperative loans, which are long-term in nature, provide capital, and have a direct effect on the production and services, had a greater impact on the growth of value added in different provinces compared to Transactional loans, which are short-term in nature, are intermediary with the possibility of determining the interest rate in advance, and have an effect on the demand for goods and services? Based on two different perspectives, Keynesian and classical, is money neutral according to the classical perspective and cannot cause production growth, but will only affect the inflation rate, or according to the Keynesian perspective, can monetary policy tools and the creation and payment of bank credits in the money market cause production and value added growth through the expenditure channel? To answer these questions, which form the same research hypotheses, the econometric estimation method using the panel data method was used, and each provincial statistics including real value added, capital (Capital of stock exchange companiesc in each province from 2011-2020), employed labor, and balance of loans with Partnership and Transactional contracts were collected and used in the estimation. According to the research results, the most important factor affecting the value added of the provinces was the variable Kt (the supply of goods and volume of accumulated capital of listed companies). Contrary to the research hypothesis that partnership loans are more effective than Transactional loans, there is no difference between these two groups except when it is converted into the capital variable (Kt) and appears in the financial statements of the companies as an effective production factor.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Partnership loans, Transactional loans, the effect of bank loans on value added, provincial value added, provincial loans, Keynesian monetary policies, Capital of stock exchange companies. Nutrality of money
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آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 39
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