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رشد اقتصادی در ایران: دیدگاه پساکینزین ها | ||
| پژوهشهای رشد و توسعه اقتصادی | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 7، شماره 25، دی 1395، صفحه 37-50 اصل مقاله (561.54 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| اسمعیل ابونوری* 1؛ محبوبه فراهتی2 | ||
| 1استاد اقتصادسنجی و آماراجتماعی، بخش اقتصاد دانشگاه سمنان | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکترای علوم اقتصادی، بخش اقتصاد دانشگاه سمنان | ||
| چکیده | ||
| آیا رشد اقتصادی در ایران متأثر از نظریه اقتصاددانان پساکینزی است؟ آیا خروج از رکود اقتصادی در ایران با رهیافت اقتصاددانان پساکینزی ممکن میباشد؟ طبق دیدگاه اقتصاددانان پساکینزی رشد اقتصادی یا سود محور است یا مزد محور. به عبارت دیگر، توزیع عاملی درآمد مسیر تغییرات رشد اقتصادی را تعیین میکند. در این مقاله با در نظر گرفتن سهم سود، استفاده از ظرفیتهای موجود، انباشت سرمایه و سهم خالص صادرات از تولید ناخالص داخلی طی سالهای 1392-1346، مسیر رشد اقتصادی در ایران با مدل خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری (SVAR) و توجه به توابع واکنش آنی تعیین شده است. نتایج نشان داده است که افزایش سهم سود موجب افزایش انباشت سرمایه، افزایش سهم خالص صادرات و تقاضای کل یا رشد اقتصادی میگردد. بنابراین رژیم تقاضای کل یا رشد اقتصادی در ایران سود محور بوده است. این یافته نتایج نظری بهادوری و مارگلین (1990) را تأیید میکند؛ با توجه به اثر توزیع درآمد بر تجارت خارجی در یک اقتصاد باز، احتمال رژیم رشد سود محور افزایش یافته و امکان خروج از رکود فراهم میگردد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| اقتصاد پساکینزی؛ رشد؛ توزیع درآمد؛ انباشت سرمایه؛ خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Economic Growth in Iran: Post-Keynesian View | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Esmaiel Abounoori1؛ Mahboobeh Farahati2 | ||
| 1Professor of Econometric and Social Statistics | ||
| 2Ph.D. Student of Economic Siences, Department of Economics, Semnan University, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Is economic growth in Iran affected by post-Keynesian economists theory? Is it possible to overcome economic recession in Iran using the post-Keynesian approach? According to the post-Keynesian point of view, the economic growth is either wage-led or profit led. In other words, the functional distribution of income determines the economic growth variation path. In this paper considering profit share, capacity utilization, capital accumulation, and net export/GDP ratio during 1967-2013, economic growth path in Iran is determined using Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) concerning the Impulse Response functions. The results show that increase in profit share increases capital accumulation, net export share of GDP and total demand or economic growth. Thus total demand regime or economic growth is profit-led. The result of this research approves the theoretical results of Bhaduri and Marglin (1990); concerning the income distribution effect on international trade in an open economy, the possibility of profit-led regime increases and may help to overcome the recession. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Post-Keynesian Economics, growth, Income Distribution, Capital Accumulation, SVAR | ||
| مراجع | ||
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